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Cake day: October 22nd, 2025

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  • Do you really hear yourself when you type these words out? I really want to understand. Do you not see what the Democratic Party analysts are saying? People turned away from the Democrats because they were unconvincing. The Democrats did not present themselves as the realistic choice to the people who mattered. Again, new voters broke for the Republican Party for the first time. Why did they do that? Why did Harris not capture new voters? Third party voters did not change the outcome of the election, that is not what the data shows. Why are you even talking about them? Why did Harris fail to capture the “politically disengaged and ideologically heterodox, aka low-information voters” who decided to stay home? Those people didn’t even bother voting, they didn’t vote for third parties, the system failed them and they stayed home. From the Vox article [emphasis mine]:

    Taken together, all these figures paint a disconcerting picture for Democrats. The party has long wagered that time was on its side: Since America’s rising generations were heavily left-leaning — and the country was becoming more diverse by the year — it would become gradually easier for Democrats to assemble national majorities, even as the party bled support among non-college-educated white voters.

    And it’s true that Democrats still do better with young and nonwhite voters than with Americans as a whole. But the party’s advantage with those constituencies has been narrowing rapidly. Last year’s returns suggest that demographic churn isn’t quite the boon that many Democrats had hoped, and can be easily outweighed by other factors. Meanwhile, as blue states bleed population to red ones, Democrats are poised to have a much harder time winning Electoral College majorities after the 2030 census [but don’t forget, Trump won the popular vote in 2024 as well]. Given current trends, by 2032, a Democratic nominee who won every blue state — and added Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — would still lose the White House.

    How Democrats can arrest the rightward drift of young and nonwhite Americans — while broadening their geographic base of support — is up for debate. But pretending that the swing electorate does not exist, or that unreliable Democratic voters are all doctrinaire progressives, probably won’t help.

    I’m not sure what you’re arguing about at this point. The Democrats did not present themselves as the obvious choice. Voters did not see Democrats as the obvious choice. Democratic Analysts have shown, through their own analysis of millions of records and data points, that this election was lost do to a failure to capture demographics The Democrats have historically won. This is a failure of the party and their campaign, a failure of the message, and of the candidate.

    If you are not going to seek out why this failure happened, then you are doomed to continue to fail.





  • The data actually disproves the “people stayed home because they wanted something better” theory.

    According to Blue Rose Research (which conducted 26 million voter interviews), roughly 70% of the Democratic vote share drop was due to people changing their minds and voting for Trump, not staying home. Only 30% was due to turnout.

    Catalist (the Democratic party’s own data firm) found something even more damning: For the first time in their dataset, new voters broke for the Republican. Harris only won 48.5% of first-time voters. These weren’t leftists demanding a purity test-they were mostly young, diverse, and working-class people who decided Trump’s message on the economy resonated more.

    The voters who did stay home? They weren’t hardcore progressives. They were “politically disengaged and ideologically heterodox”, aka low-information voters who didn’t feel motivated by either candidate. That’s a persuasion failure!

    It was a campaign that failed to differentiate itself from Biden, chased Liz Cheney Republicans instead of union workers, and watched 79% of economy-first voters go to Trump.

    Harris lost because she couldn’t convince people she’d change anything. That’s on the campaign, not on voters for wanting “something better.”

    Vox had a whole write up on it: https://archive.is/20250602132021/https://www.vox.com/politics/414370/2024-election-results-exit-polls-catalist


  • RedWizardOPMAtoMeta😔 Sorry for all the spam!
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    25 days ago

    Looks like I cleared it earlier, just double checked and I didn’t see new dupes. It shouldn’t be doing it again. I tested it in a test instance and made sure the server running the code had s fresh docker image build and I’d ruining the current code.

    I don’t expect it to act up more. Let me know if you see anything off.


  • RedWizardOPMAtoMeta😔 Sorry for all the spam!
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    25 days ago

    Just a heads up. I found the issue again. In my haste to fix the issue I didn’t fully deploy the fix. I saw your comments before they were deleted with the posts they were under though:

    Yeah I’ll have to add a dupe check to the queue itself and have it self purge before any posting happens. That’s a good idea. Good task for my day off tomorrow!

    Actually that might not work. The issue isn’t that the queue has dupes. It’s that they were never getting marked as posted. It’s because presstv.ir is odd. The URL doesn’t load right without www. In front but the RSS feed provides the article without the www. It gets queued that way so I’m always matching against what their server is delivering. I change the URL for posting so the links function. I was doing it in a way that also stored the change in the DB which was the original issue. It made a mismatch between the rss feed and the db resulting in the system thinking the posts were never posted.

    It shouldn’t be an issue going forward. This was a unique situation. I can’t imagine any other site will have such an odd issue that requires me to mess with the URL like that.

    This is what I get for making changes on a Friday/Thursday. Lol.