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Conservative operatives are doing a victory lap despite historic midterm losses, celebrating what they say functioned as an important proof of concept: the success of anti-trans athlete ballot measures, which were put to a vote in four states this year.
Colorado, Washington, Arizona and Nebraska voted for such a ban. Nebraska’s ban was a constitutional amendment; Arizona’s language was also coupled with an anti-trans bathroom ban.
Craig DeRoche, president and CEO of the Family Policy Alliance, a conservative, Christian and anti-LGBTQ public policy organization, said his group was already setting its sights on replicating these wins across the country.
“We hope to pass these measures in more states and legislatures, and, where available, on state ballots as well,” DeRoche told MS NOW’s Julianne McShane. DeRoche and other conservative strategists are eyeing California, in particular, citing Gov. Gavin Newsom’s presidential aspirations and his comments after the 2024 election calling inclusive sports for transgender athletes “deeply unfair.”
Ahead of Election Day, the American Principles Project, a far-right advocacy group, flagged the issue as a historic strength for Republicans but also, increasingly, a crutch. “While Democrats may be on the offensive, recent message testing we have conducted in several key swing states suggest that they remain vulnerable on culture-war issues, particularly in their support for transgender ideology and so-called ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI) policies,” a September memo from the group said. “Still, pressing the advantage on these issues alone, while important, may not be sufficient. Republicans must also make the case to families on what they plan to do to help improve their economic standing.”
Evidently, they couldn’t make that case—nationwide, conservative candidates drowned. Even Texas turned blue.
The American Principles Project’s Terry Schilling ultimately called the ballot measures “the only good thing that happened” to Republicans on election night.
Readers of this newsletter might recognize Schilling from a past interview he gave to CNN, where he boasted, “The women’s sports issue was really the beginning point in helping expose all this because what it did was, it got opponents of the LGBT movement comfortable with talking about transgender issues.”
Now that anti-trans attack ads against candidates have proven to be a flop, conservative strategists like Schilling are looking to expand to new markets to sell an anti-trans agenda. Ballot measures may represent that.
So it’s important to take this rhetoric with a grain of salt. While Schilling and DeRoche are likely serious about their intentions, they’re also trying to fundraise. Conservative political consultants didn’t need to win big to earn big. Anti-trans animus may not earn votes for candidates, but it does sell ad slots.
“Political Action Committees (PACs), Super PACs, and other special interest groups spent more than $400 million on anti-trans campaign ads, including at least $78 million in Texas and $26 million in Ohio,” a report by GLAAD found. “Rather than mobilizing their base, anti-trans messaging alienated voters across political, demographic, and geographic divides.”
Finally, these ballot measures are not a total encapsulation of Americans’ views on trans people or even on trans people in sports. They are often confusingly and verbosely written. In Colorado, for example, voters arrived at their polling places to see this on their ballot:
“Shall there be a change to the Colorado Revised Statutes creating new law restricting participation in all K-12 and collegiate school sports based on the participant’s sex as determined by certain aspects of their biological reproductive system, and, in connection therewith, requiring a school, institution of higher education, or athletic association to designate each school or intramural athletic team or sport as male, female, or coeducational; only allowing participants to compete on the team or sport of their designated sex or to compete on a coeducational team; creating an exception to allow a female to participate on a male-designated team or sport if there is no female team available; prohibiting a government entity, licensing or accrediting organization, or athletic association from entertaining a complaint, opening an investigation, or taking other adverse action against a school for maintaining separate teams or sports for females; and providing the commissioner of education with the authority to enforce the proposed initiative for K-12 school districts?”
If trans Americans and their allies want to defeat these measures the next time around, it may pay to focus on rhetoric like that seen in the viral video, “Republicans In Your Bathroom,” wherein a fictitious GOP lawmaker requests to inspect a young girl in a bathroom stall. The ad ran in Texas and Ohio to reach an estimated 50 million Americans, scoring big in two states where the left saw some of its greatest victories in the blue wave.
The average voter may have mixed or apathetic views about transgender people. However, concepts like keeping government out of our schools and health care, protecting children from predators, and medical privacy may be more compelling slants than a broader appeal to one’s sense of justice and human rights. Indeed, these laws will hurt all young people and all athletes, not just transgender ones.
Joe Jacobson, the executive director of the Progress Action Fund—which created the “Republicans In Your Bathroom” ad—told Erin in the Morning previously that these kinds of aggressive tactics to put Republicans on the defensive will be essential. “Rather than just sidestepping the issue, we need to have a counter,” he said. “The testing shows our counter is effective.”
“As public opinion shifted toward greater acceptance of same-sex marriage and LGBTQ+ people, the GOP’s opposition left it out of step with voters and the party struggled to move past it,” MS NOW’s McShane further writes. “Two decades later, some advocates say Republicans are poised to make the same mistake.”
At least one lawsuit has already challenged the implementation of such bans in court; it remains to be seen whether any will be enforced at all.
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