The impact of President Donald Trump’s illegal war with Iran continued to hit US consumers hard in October, with the price of groceries experiencing a particularly notable spike.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Tuesday shows that overall prices increased by 0.4% in October, higher than economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, which was also higher than economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase.
The CPI report doesn’t include estimates of yearly price increases, as the BLS last October didn’t collect any price data during a government shutdown.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, estimated in a social media post that the data released by BLS “implies about a ~4% inflation rate for the past year.”
Long highlighted a “a big jump in grocery prices” in the report, while also noting that “eating out, electricity, transportation (especially airfares), rent, and medical services (especially hospitals)” all saw “sizable monthly price increases.” Analysts have noted that Trump’s Iran war is increasing costs across the economy, including food prices, by jacking up fuel and fertilizer expenses.
Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, posted a chart showing that real wage growth has been in decline in the seven months since Trump launched his illegal war without congressional authorization in February.
Zipperer also mused that the decline in workers’ earning power may have “something to do with the recent election results,” in which Democrats ousted Trump’s Republicans as the majority party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate starting in January.
Maybe something to do with the recent election results:
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— Ben Zipperer (@benzipperer.org) November 10, 2026 at 9:56 AM
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers observed that real wage growth is now flat throughout Trump’s second term, with prices really picking up steam at the start of the Iran War.
“The average real wage—what your paycheck buys—is falling,” Wolfers wrote. “That’s the sense in which it might feel like you’re falling behind. It’s not meant to work this way.”
The latest inflation report was so ugly that even National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who has been widely criticized for spinning bad data into an implausibly sunny narrative, couldn’t paint a rosy picture during a Tuesday interview with Fox Business.
“It’s a disappointing report,” Hassett acknowledged. “Energy prices in the CPI are up 20% year-over-year, and gasoline prices are up 37% year-over-year… right now, the trickle down from the higher energy prices is definitely very palpable in the data.”
🤯 even Hassett can’t spin hotter than expected inflation data: “It’s a disappointing report … things have accelerated over the last three months … the trickle down from higher energy prices is definitely very palpable in the data” https://t.co/yiIylq1mT5
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 10, 2026
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who is facing calls to step aside as Senate Democratic leader before his party takes over as the majority next year, said the latest CPI report showed “why Americans chose Democrats to be in charge.”
“From his costly tariffs to his reckless war, Trump has only made inflation worse,” said Schumer. “And he openly admits he doesn’t care. Our Senate Democratic majority will work relentlessly to bring down costs for all Americans.”
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