Bullets:
Oil refineries across the Persian Gulf have been destroyed since late February, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
The Ukraine War also features heavy drone and missile attacks across a range of energy targets.
Oil prices moved violently higher, but occasionally pulled back as new supply routes were developed.
But diesel and other energy products will remain high, even if the wars end tomorrow. It will take months, and hundreds of billions of dollars, to restore destroyed refinery capacity.
The impact of diesel shortages were even felt in the United States, where voters swung hard away from Trump and the Republicans.
Closing scene, Shenzhen
Resources and links:
JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/mideast-crude-oil-flows-hit-98-of-pre-war-level-jpmorgan-says
JPMorgan says Middle East crude exports back to 98% of pre-war levels as product flows lag
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/jpmorgan-middle-east-crude-exports
Soaring diesel prices helped usher in Democratic sweep
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/soaring-diesel-prices-helped-usher-democratic-sweep-2026-11-05/
The Diesel Crisis Is Here To Stay
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Here-To-Stay.html
Morgan Stanley Sees Fuel Tightness Persisting Through Mid-2027
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-21/morgan-stanley-sees-fuel-tightness-persisting-through-mid-2027
‘Band-Aids on a shotgun wound’: Diesel prices to remain high into 2027
https://www.overdriveonline.com/business/article/16274699/bandaids-on-a-shotgun-wound-diesel-prices-will-remain-high
Diesel Prices Collapse, Then Rebound: What’s Driving Volatility?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/diesel-prices-collapse-then-rebound-whats-driving-volatility
Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Futures, NYMEX, Year-to-Date
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-HO1!/?timeframe=YTD
U.S. Refineries Make Dramatic Shift Away From Gasoline
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Make-Dramatic-Shift-Away-From-Gasoline.html
Refineries have shifted production away from gasoline to middle distillates
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68424
Oil and petroleum products - a statistical overview
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil\_and\_petroleum\_products\_-\_a\_statistical\_overview
The market moves before Trump posts
https://stories.theconversation.com/the-market-moves-before-trump-posts/
The Well-Timed Trades Made Moments Before Trump’s Policy Surprises
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-well-timed-trades-made-moments-before-trumps-policy-surprises-36e6963a
U.S. to Allow Dark-Fleet Tankers to Shed Sanctions, Wright Says
https://gcaptain.com/u-s-to-allow-dark-fleet-tankers-to-shed-sanctions-wright-says/
Iran is (probably) collecting tolls, and why Asia stopped buying oil from the US
A new global food crisis: farmers can’t get fertilizers out of the Persian Gulf
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