The first half of 2026 recorded 0.64°C above the average for the period 1991-2020
On Friday, Copernicus reported that the global average temperature in 2026 is more than 99% likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, the second calendar year to surpass this limit, after 2024.
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The European climate service estimates that global warming in 2026 will be between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above the pre-industrial average. This forecast is based on statistical models adjusted to historical records.
Furthermore, Copernicus considers there to be an approximately 80% probability that 2026 will be the second warmest year since records began. It also considers a 20% possibility of matching or exceeding 2024.
During the first ten months of the year, 2026 recorded a global average temperature 0.64°C above the average for the period 1991-2020. This data currently places it as the second warmest year on record.
🌡️2026 is on course to become only the second calendar year on record to pass 1.5°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels.
According to the @CopernicusECMWF Climate Change Service (C3S), the first ten months of 2026 were the second-warmest on record … pic.twitter.com/4QqD5P1al2
— EU EnvironmentAgency (@EUEnvironment) November 6, 2026
Analyses predict that the annual temperature anomaly will close between 0.68°C and 0.73°C above the recent average. These figures equate to warming exceeding 1.5°C compared to the period 1850-1900.
Copernicus warns that, if this forecast is confirmed, the average for the years between 2023 and 2026 will also surpass 1.5°C. The organization considers this evidence of a sustained acceleration of global warming.
Experts attribute some of the high temperatures to a particularly intense El Niño event, compounded by warming caused by human activities. The warning coincides with the upcoming United Nations climate summit in Turkey.
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— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) October 30, 2026
Source: EFE
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