Bullets:
The War on Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, forced energy buyers to source crude oil and refined products from the United States.
But US exports of crude to Asia have since collapsed, and are plumbing multiyear lows.
Oil transport costs have skyrocketed, making American oil shipments to Asia non-competitive.
Industry insiders strongly suspect that the increased oil flows through the Persian Gulf are a result of oil suppliers quietly paying Iran for safe passage through the Hormuz.
Middle East suppliers are also selling oil on a “delivered basis” to buyers in China and India, thereby assuming all the transport costs and insurance risks.
Closing scene, Hainan
Resources and links:
U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached record in April
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67825
$80 Million Tanker Bills Are Crushing US Oil Exports to Asia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-22/oil-tankers-plying-the-us-china-route-command-60-million-it-s-crushing-demand
Asian refiners use smaller tankers, buy delivered crude as freight rates soar
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-refiners-use-smaller-tankers-buy-delivered-crude-freight-rates-soar-2026-10-20/
Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Kpler-Suspects-Gulf-Producers-Are-Paying-Iran-for-Safe-Passage.html
Is Iran charging a toll to allow oil traffic through Hormuz?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/is-iran-charging-a-toll-to-allow-oil-traffic-through-hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz transit fee.
https://straits.live/strait-of-hormuz-transit-fee
Oil Tankers Earn $1 Million a Day as War Leaves Ship Shortage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-14/oil-tankers-earn-1-million-a-day-as-war-leaves-ship-shortage
Supertanker chartered from Gulf Coast to China for $76 million, 10 times higher than pre-war level
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/supertanker-from-us-to-china-chartered-for-76-million-source.html
Operation Economic Outcast Disrupts Digital Asset Exchange Enabling the Iranian Regime
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0632
Over a thousand “dark fleet” tankers sell sanctioned oil. And nobody really wants them to stop.
Shipping companies offering captains $US100k a month to transit Strait of Hormuz
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/sailors-offered-bonuses-to-cross-strait-of-hormuz-in-iran-war/107248044
Ship captains and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz make so much danger pay that they’re ‘almost being viewed as mercenaries’
https://fortune.com/2026/10/10/ship-captains-crews-strait-of-hormuz-danger-mercenaries-tankers-freight-rates/
Kotak raises FY27 crude oil price forecast to $100 amid 8-month supply disruption
https://timesofoman.com/article/178524-kotak-raises-fy27-crude-oil-price-forecast-to-100-amid-8-month-supply-disruption
China Refiners Tap African, Brazilian Oil as Freight Rates Fall
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-28/china-refiners-tap-african-brazilian-oil-as-freight-rates-fall
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