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Election night is coming, and the results on Nov. 3 could be enormously consequential for transgender people across the United States. As the federal government has become openly hostile toward trans and queer people and Republican-controlled statehouses continue to pass a slew of anti-trans legislation, Democrats appear poised to make significant gains, perhaps even approaching a wave election. Races from the state legislative level all the way up to control of Congress will draw heavy attention from anyone hoping for Democratic victories, and transgender people are likely to be among those most affected by the results.

Every year at Erin In The Morning, we watch the elections closely. We report on the results as they come in on election night (subscribe and watch for our live chat if you have not already), and in the days that follow, we untangle what they mean. Before election night, we also put out guides so that you know which races will matter most for whatever narrative emerges about transgender people the day after.

So here are the races we are watching on election night:

The U.S. Senate

Democratic control of the Senate is important for transgender people for so many reasons. Democrats in the driver’s seat in the Senate means a second chamber that can help keep anti-transgender riders out of must-pass legislation, and should Democrats choose to limit the Trump administration’s ability to target transgender people through such bills, control of the Senate would be enormously consequential. The Senate is also responsible for confirming any Supreme Court justices, and Democratic control of the chamber insulates us from further backsliding there. Likewise, many of these races have seen heavy ad spending around transgender people, sometimes with even the Democrat pushing anti-transgender ads, and whether those candidates win or lose will become part of the narrative moving forward. Here are the most important Senate races we are watching that have featured transgender issues:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers ®. This race is probably one of the most important races in the country for transgender people. Should El-Sayed win, it will show that a Democrat running on unequivocal support for transgender people in a relatively purple state can win. A win by El-Sayed dampens any narrative that transgender people must be thrown under the bus for a Democratic victory.
• Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya ®. This is a clean test of whether or not a Democrat needs to embrace anti-transgender policy to win a contested election. Flanagan wore a “protect trans kids” T-shirt to Walz’s signing of an executive order protecting gender-affirming care. Tafoya has been vehemently anti-transgender.
• Maine: Susan Collins ® vs. Troy Jackson (D). This race has been one of the focal races for Elon Musk’s America PAC, which has poured $100 million into races across the country, many of which feature ads targeting transgender people. Troy Jackson has, to our knowledge, not indicated he supports any anti-trans positions, and AOC defended transgender people at an event with him in the closing weeks of the election cycle.
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson ®. This race features one of the most anti-transgender Democratic candidates in the United States, Josh Turek, against Ashley Hinson, a Republican who herself is vehemently anti-transgender. A win by Josh Turek would likely be interpreted by the consultant class as a sign that Democrats running in red states should embrace anti-trans policy. Due to Turek’s extreme ad targeting transgender people, EITM endorsed leaving his race blank. Regardless, this race will be incredibly important to watch on election night.
• Texas: Ken Paxton ® vs. James Talarico (D). This race is probably going to be the most interesting race to watch on election night. Talarico has been incredibly pro-transgender in his history and voting record, but in September, he equivocated on transgender sports participation and embraced medical restrictions on transgender youth care in the case of surgical care. He later stepped back and said he opposed a statewide sports ban. Meanwhile, Ken Paxton is one of the most vehemently anti-transgender individuals in the United States. This race will have enormous impacts on transgender people regardless of who wins.
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted ®. This is a huge race. Sherrod Brown flirted with anti-transgender advertising in the past, but when data began to come out that such ads do not work and after receiving criticism, he reversed course. Instead, he switched to rebutting anti-transgender ads by pointing out Husted’s connection to the Epstein files. A Brown win would teach that embracing anti-trans policy is not necessary to win in Ohio.
• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan ®. This race featured an ad from anti-trans Democrat Mary Peltola saying she opposed “men in girls’ bathrooms,” running against Republican Dan Sullivan. Peltola winning will likely be used as a signal that Democrats should run on anti-trans policy in red states. Sullivan winning would be one less Democrat in the Senate.
• South Carolina: Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham ®. This race has huge implications for transgender people. While Andrews winning in South Carolina would be a major pickup for Democrats, Annie Andrews has been the recipient of anti-transgender slurs and advertising. Not to be outdone, Andrews released her own anti-trans ad, calling transgender women “biological men” and stating she would not reverse restrictions made in South Carolina targeting trans youth. Meanwhile, Darline Graham is the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, was appointed to his seat after his death and has enormous Trump support.
• Other races worth watching: Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins ®; Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall ®; Mississippi: Scott Colom (D) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith ®; Nebraska: Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts ®; New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu ®; and North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley ®.

The U.S. House

Control of the U.S. House is almost as important as control of the Senate. House members serve shorter, two-year terms, but they maintain a large amount of power in passing legislation and what ends up in appropriations bills. Many of the worst anti-transgender bills and hearings originated in the U.S. House in the last two years. This year’s slate of candidates includes some who were unafraid of supporting trans and queer people in their campaigns, as well as some who went the opposite direction, deciding it was better to compromise on our rights for political gain. A large part of the story of the 2026 midterms will depend on who wins these House races. Here is what we’re watching:

• MT-01: Sam Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint ®. This is going to be an incredible pickup opportunity to watch. Forstag is a slight underdog because he is running in a district that leans conservative, but he has run a strong race. A smokejumper with popular appeal, he is running against Aaron Flint, a right-wing radio talk show host who has made anti-trans ads a major part of his campaign against Forstag. When asked about his position on trans issues in a debate, though, Forstag did not throw trans people under the bus. He instead answered, “let’s let people live their lives with dignity and make their own private personal decisions, and let’s keep politics the heck out of it.” He also identified the issue as a distraction by Republicans while they “pick our pockets.”
• AZ-06: JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani ®. This is a big pickup opportunity for Democrats in Arizona. Ciscomani has run multiple anti-trans ads accusing Mendoza of letting “biological males” into women’s locker rooms, and was a cosponsor of the national sports ban and voted for the felony youth care ban, neither of which became law. Mendoza on the other hand was endorsed by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund and actively opposes sports and bathroom bans. A Mendoza win would mean a Democrat who openly opposes anti-trans bans and refuses to capitulate can win in a contested Arizona district.
• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks ®. Unlike other Democratic candidates in Iowa, Bohannan did not throw transgender people under the bus in her answer to the anti-trans ads run against her. Instead, she ran an ad that focused on her experience as a high school athlete and responded to claims of “unfairness in sports” with the “unfairness” of Miller-Meeks siding with the drug companies. It’ll be a big test to compare the results of her method of response with those of the other anti-trans Dems in Iowa.
• PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D) vs. Rob Bresnahan ®. This is a true toss-up race and great pickup opportunity for Democrats. Cognetti has been the target of a vicious series of anti-transgender ads, including an ad of her raising a Pride flag beside a local drag performer. There have been plenty of opportunities for Cognetti to throw transgender people under the bus, and she has declined to do so every time she was asked. It will be a test of whether anti-transgender politics from the Republican Party works in a very purple Pennsylvania district that has a history of voting for Trump.
• NY-17: Cait Conley (D) vs. Mike Lawler ®. Conley, an LGBTQ+ Victory Fund-endorsed combat veteran and lesbian woman, has not thrown transgender people under the bus. She is running for a Democratic pickup seat against Lawler and has been the recipient of anti-transgender ads. Her win in a toss-up district would be huge.
• OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin ®. This is the single most important House race for those tracking anti-transgender Democrats. Kaptur has run one of the most viciously anti-transgender campaigns, answering anti-trans attack ads against her with her own ad stating that she “voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools” and calling transgender girls boys. This led to Equality Ohio downgrading her rating to a D. Meanwhile, the Ohio Democratic Party censored its own Pride and Progressive caucuses from even criticizing her on the ads. If Kaptur wins this race, consultants will likely point to her anti-trans politics, rightly or wrongly, as contributing to her victory. If she loses, then one of the biggest capitulations will have failed in 2026.
• IA-03: Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs. Zach Nunn ®. Sarah Trone Garriott was one of the first Democrats this cycle to come up with an anti-transgender ad, declaring “I oppose letting men in women’s locker rooms.” Meanwhile, she has been the recipient of millions of dollars in anti-trans ads against her. The race is Lean D, so if she loses this race, it would be a genuine surprise. If she wins, anti-trans political consultants in the Democratic Party will likely give some credit to her anti-trans ad blitz.
• NC-01: Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout ®. Don Davis, Democratic incumbent, voted “present” on the sports ban in Congress and was one of three Dems to vote for MTG’s felony youth care ban. His opponent’s allies are still running ads saying he “allowed taxpayer-funded sex-change operations,” so his capitulation has bought him nothing. This is a true toss-up district and it will bear watching whether his decisions result in him keeping his seat or losing it to a Republican.
• SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D) vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt ®. This will be a major race to watch because it was the race which received the DCCC’s first anti-transgender ad, in which a Republican mayor vouches for Lacore because she will “protect girls’ sports.” Her campaign confirmed she opposes trans girls in girls’ sports and might support federal legislation. Will the DCCC get a return on its anti-trans investment?
• FL-14: Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran ®. Kathy Castor, a Democratic incumbent, made news for an especially cruel answer to a constituent question as to whether or not trans women should be able to play women’s sports. She responded, “The answer is no” while gleefully laughing. She still received ads saying she supported trans people in girls’ sports, so it bought her nothing.
• Other races with trans implications: CO-08: Manny Rutinel (D) vs. Gabe Evans ®; IN-05: J.D. Ford (D) vs. Victoria Spartz ®; MO-02: Fred Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner ®; NC-11: Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom ®; NE-02: Denise Powell (D) vs. Brinker Harding ®; NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D) vs. Greg Cunningham ®; NV-01: Dina Titus (D) vs. Carrie Buck ®; NV-03: Susie Lee (D) vs. Marty O’Donnell ®; NY-03: Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Michael LiPetri ®; NY-04: Laura Gillen (D) vs. Jeanine Driscoll ®; NY-21: Blake Gendebien (D) vs. Anthony Constantino ®; PA-01: Bob Harvie (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick ®; PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D) vs. Scott Perry ®; TX-23: Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera ®; TX-28: Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina ®; TX-34: Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores ®; VA-01: Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman ®; VA-02: Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans ®; VA-07: Eugene Vindman (D) vs. Douglas Ollivant ®; WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun ®; WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden ®; and many, many more.

Governorships And Statewide Offices

Governorships are extremely important. They hold veto power, they must be negotiated with, and they actually are the ones who implement the laws passed by state legislatures. A good governor can be an impediment to bad legislation targeting transgender people. A bad one can fiercely enforce everything with extreme zeal. Likewise, other offices such as attorney general and school superintendent can have enormous impacts. Here are the races we are most watching:

• Michigan: Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James ®. James is a congressman who voted for the national sports ban, felony youth care ban and PROTECT Kids Act, and he’s running on a “parental bill of rights” that would ban trans girls from girls’ bathrooms, locker rooms and sports teams. Meanwhile, Benson as secretary of state created Michigan’s first nonbinary X marker for driver’s licenses. She has not thrown transgender people under the bus, and a win in Michigan would be big for a state that has become more supportive in recent years.
• Wisconsin: David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany ®. Tiffany has run on an anti-transgender platform, declaring that he would sign legislation banning “men from women’s sports, bathrooms, and locker rooms.” Crowley stated that he is “not going to limit our LGBTQ community from what they currently have.” The winner will take Evers’ old spot, and Evers was incredibly supportive of transgender people. Crowley winning statewide in a purple state like Wisconsin on this platform would be incredible for transgender people.
• Arizona: Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs ®. Hobbs has spent her entire first term vetoing anti-trans proposals from the Arizona Legislature. This June, she vetoed a ban on puberty blockers and hormones for trans youth. Meanwhile, Biggs calls trans kids “children infected by the woke mind virus.” Hobbs winning is very important and would be a clear example of a Democrat winning in a state that voted for Trump without abandoning trans people.
• Georgia: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson ®. Jackson has called transgender care for trans youth “mutilation” and has promised that trans youth care providers would be put in jail. He has run anti-trans ads and attacked Bottoms over trans athletes. Bottoms on the other hand could flip Georgia blue without running a single anti-transgender ad and without embracing anti-trans policy. That lesson would be huge moving forward, and a Democratic governor of Georgia would go a long way toward protecting trans people.
• Ohio: Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy ®. Transgender people likely have complicated feelings about this race. Acton has thrown transgender people under the bus and promised to enforce the state’s sports ban, and called trans girls “boys.” Ramaswamy has been one of the most vehemently anti-transgender people in the modern anti-trans panic. Party infrastructure has cracked down on transgender and queer dissent in Ohio, blacklisting many activists due to their criticism of Acton. For all of these reasons, the race will be important to watch.
• Iowa: Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn ®. Rob Sand backs Iowa’s sports ban and says so often. “I just think girls’ sports are for girls and boys’ sports are for boys,” he says. He does oppose the stripping of gender identity from Iowa’s Civil Rights Act. Meanwhile, Zach Lahn hit Sand on allowing “a book on transgenderism” in elementary schools. This race will be important to watch to see if centrist Democratic consultants will credit his anti-trans turn with helping him win in Iowa, a state filled with anti-trans Democratic candidates.
• Texas: Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott ®. Abbott’s campaign doctored a photo and put a trans flag behind Hinojosa, calling her “Gender Bender Gina.” Meanwhile, Hinojosa waved a trans pride flag on the Texas House floor after Democrats stalled a sports ban. Abbott has been one of the worst anti-trans governors of any state. A Hinojosa win would be huge for trans Texans. I will note that Hinojosa got some flak for putting out an ad saying her pronouns are “Mom, Texan, and soon to be: Governor.”
• Arizona Attorney General: Kris Mayes (D) vs. Warren Petersen ®. Mayes refused to defend Arizona’s 2022 sports ban in court and called it unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Petersen has run anti-transgender ads against her calling her radical on the issue. This is an important race to watch in a state Trump carried.
• Kansas Attorney General: Chris Mann (D) vs. Kris Kobach ®. Kobach has been one of the most fiercely anti-trans attorneys general in the country. He was responsible for reverting Kansans’ driver’s licenses and has pushed anti-trans policy throughout government. If Mann wins, it could deal a major blow to the enforcement of anti-trans policy in the state.
• Georgia Attorney General: Tanya Miller (D) vs. Brian Strickland ®. Strickland was a co-sponsor of the Riley Gaines Act, and has run ads attacking Miller for voting against the transgender sports ban. Miller on the other hand has asked why her colleagues “have become obsessed with what is happening in transgender citizens’ pants.” A Miller win would be a major victory in Georgia.
• California Superintendent of Public Instruction: Richard Barrera vs. Sonja Shaw. Sonja Shaw has been an enormous anti-trans presence in California, and got gaveled down for yelling “Do you think it’s okay for boys to play against our girls in sports?” She has vowed to end the CIF’s policy (which is already anti-trans) to entirely ban trans athletes from competition. Meanwhile, her opponent, Barrera, is endorsed by Equality California.
• Other races: Alabama governor: Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville ®; California governor: Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton ®; Colorado governor: Phil Weiser (D) vs. Victor Marx ®; Florida attorney general: Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) vs. James Uthmeier ®; Florida governor: David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds ®; Indiana secretary of state: Beau Bayh (D) vs. Max Engling ® vs. Greg Ballard (Lincoln); Michigan State Board of Education: Judith Pritchett (D) and Tiffany Tilley (D) vs. Bree Moeggenberg ® and Terence Collins ®; New Hampshire governor: Cinde Warmington (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte ®; Pennsylvania governor: Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Stacy Garrity ®; and Texas lieutenant governor: Vikki Goodwin (D) vs. Dan Patrick ®.

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State Legislative chambers

Almost every anti-trans law in the United States was passed by a state legislature, and almost every protective law was too. Because of this, state legislatures can prevent further anti-trans legislation or could even be used to roll back old laws. Here are the state legislative chambers most important to trans people this next cycle:

• Michigan House and Senate: Michigan Republicans are itching to pass anti-transgender legislation. The Republican-controlled House passed a ban on gender-affirming care for transgender youth this year, but of course, it cannot make it past the Democratic-controlled Senate. A Democratic trifecta could go a long way to helping pass protective legislation. Republican control would be disastrous.
• Minnesota House and Senate: This last session, the House was tied 67-67, and every seat in both chambers is up. Minnesota has been the site of enormously protective pro-transgender legislation in recent years. If Democrats can hold the Senate and retake the House, it will be a major victory for trans people in the state.
• Pennsylvania House and Senate: Republicans have controlled the Pennsylvania Senate since 1994, and this year, Democrats could grab it. If they do, they may gain a trifecta in the state, meaning that Pennsylvania may finally pass the protective legislation required for it to be listed as blue on my trans risk assessment map.
• Arizona House and Senate: Democrats have not held a chamber in Arizona in decades. If they could get control of one chamber, it would stymie anti-trans bills that continue to pass out of the legislature. If they get control of both, we could be staring at a Democratic trifecta in Arizona, which may lead to protective legislation for transgender people.
• Wisconsin Senate and Assembly: This year, Wisconsin has a true shot at a Democratic trifecta. If they achieve it, then we could see truly protective legislation for transgender people in the state. Anti-trans ads are pouring into races across the state, and the governorship is also up for grabs, making this state one of the most important states for transgender people.
• North Carolina Senate and House: This is primarily a supermajority fight, as Republicans hold the Senate with exactly the number of votes a veto override takes and the House one short. The state has a Democratic governor in Josh Stein, but his veto of anti-trans legislation was overridden by the legislature last year, as Roy Cooper’s were before him. Big wins for Democrats would go a long way to making Stein’s vetoes of such bills stick.
• New Hampshire House and Senate: New Hampshire has been the site of many anti-transgender bills, including a gender-affirming care ban for trans youth. Some bills, such as bathroom bans, have been vetoed by Ayotte, the Republican governor of the state. Democrats taking one or both chambers would go a long way to preventing us from depending on Ayotte to continue vetoing such bills.
• Georgia House: This is a major legislative chamber to watch. If Georgia’s House goes blue, then many anti-trans bills that neighboring states have passed targeting adults would be dead in the water. Democrats walked out of the state House last year over anti-trans bills. Anti-trans ads abound, and this race will be one of the most important.
• Other chambers to watch: Alaska House and Senate (bipartisan coalition fights); Florida House and Senate (Republican supermajorities); Iowa House and Senate (Republican supermajorities); Kansas House (break the Republican supermajority); Maine House and Senate; Missouri House and Senate (Republican supermajorities); Montana House (control or margins); Nevada Senate and Assembly (supermajority fight); Ohio House and Senate (Republican supermajorities); South Carolina House (Republican supermajority); Texas House and Senate (reduce Republican majorities); and Vermont House and Senate (Democratic supermajority).

Ballot Measures

• Washington Initiative 638: This would ban transgender girls in girls’ sports and require sex verification, which could lead to mandatory genital inspections. This initiative is led by Brian Heywood, a wealthy benefactor of anti-transgender policies in the state. If it passes, it will be the first anti-trans law to pass via popular vote in a blue state.
• Washington Initiative 1: This would bring back the “parents’ bill of rights.” It would also repeal the protection-measures that the legislature added in 2025 for trans students and could bring back forced outing.
• Colorado Proposition 134: This is a transgender sports ban for K-12 and college teams.
• Colorado Proposition 135: This would ban gender-affirming surgery for trans youth, including top surgery. If this passes, it would be the first restriction on trans youth care in a blue state, and notably, Colorado is a state that has passed refuge protection for trans people.
• Arizona Proposition 318: This is a sports ban and locker room ban for transgender students in schools throughout the state, from kindergarten through college. This would be a significant regression of rights in Arizona if it passes.
• Vermont Proposal 4: This would enshrine equal protection for sexual orientation, gender identity and gender expression into the state constitution.
• Missouri Amendment 3: This would repeal the abortion rights amendment in the state and would also write a ban on blockers, hormones and surgery for trans youth into the constitution. It is an attempt to ban abortion using anti-trans hate in the state.

New Transgender Candidates

• Washington LD-37: Jaelynn Scott (D) vs. Evon McCorkle (I). Scott, executive director of the Lavender Rights Project, is likely to become Washington’s first openly trans legislator and the first out Black trans woman elected to any state legislature in the United States.
• Alabama HD-25: Allison Montgomery (D) vs. Phillip Rigsby ®. A toss-up race in Alabama, where Montgomery, a transgender Democrat, is running against Rigsby, the Republican incumbent, weeks after state Republican leaders called her one of “two men who have mental disorders” for being transgender.
• Georgia HD-90: Bentley Hudgins (D) vs. Samantha Boston ®. Hudgins is HRC’s Georgia state director and the favorite for this seat. If they win, they will become Georgia’s first-ever nonbinary person elected to the Legislature.
• Michigan HD-2: Joanna Whaley (D) vs. Ronald Kokinda ®. Whaley, a conversion therapy survivor, would be the first openly trans member of the Michigan House. Her Democratic primary opponent tried to remove her from the ballot for her name change, and her Republican general election opponent deadnames her.
• Maryland House of Delegates District 4 (three seats): Alleria Stanley (D), with Jerry Donald (D) and Andrew Duck (D), vs. Jesse Pippy ®, April Fleming Miller ® and Jason Keckler ®. Stanley is a retired Army combat veteran and would be Maryland’s first out transgender legislator.
• Wisconsin AD-76: Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D) vs. Nina Chat ®. If Martinez-Rutherford wins, she will be the first transgender member of the Wisconsin Legislature. She is running in a D+80 seat.
• Colorado HD-23: Alexis Hoffkling (D) vs. Ross Metler (L). Hoffkling is a family doctor at Denver Health. She is a transgender woman running in a seat with no Republican on the ballot and is certain to win. She would be the second transgender woman to win a legislative seat in Colorado, after Brianna Titone.
• New York AD-65: Illapa Sairitupac (D) vs. Helen Qiu ®. Sairitupac, a social worker and nonbinary candidate, would be one of New York’s first two out nonbinary legislators.
• New York AD-66: David Siffert (D), unopposed. Siffert, a nonbinary attorney whose platform promises a private right of action for anyone denied gender-affirming care at a New York health care institution, is also poised to become one of the state’s first two out nonbinary legislators.

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