Polls Favor Democrats as the MAGA leader Ramps Up Campaigning to Help Republicans Retain Control of Congress.
U.S. citizens will head to the polls in one week for midterm elections that are shaping up as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance and will determine whether Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress during the second half of his term.
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Polls for the Nov. 3 elections point to a favorable outlook for the Democratic opposition, prompting Trump to throw himself into the campaign, with nearly daily rallies this week in key states.
According to an analysis by Decision Desk, based on polling averages, Democrats have a 79% chance of winning the House of Representatives, up 2 percentage points from last week, and a 57% chance of regaining control of the Senate, up 1 point from a week ago.
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With the U.S. midterm elections approaching (November 3), the war involving Iran has driven up oil prices and the cost of living, making these issues a focal point ahead of the vote.
Some of Donald Trump’s core supporters… pic.twitter.com/RtXAdDQncq
— Emily (@Emily_CFA) October 27, 2026
Republicans Set to Lose the House of Representatives
The House will see all 435 seats up for election for two-year terms. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of 219 seats to the Democrats’ 214, meaning the opposition needs a net gain of three seats to take control.
According to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Democrats hold a clear lead in House voting intentions, with 51.1% support compared with 42.8% for Republicans.
Over the past week, Cook Political Report has revised its forecasts in 19 districts in favor of Democrats, many of them in traditionally Republican states. The opposition is virtually assured of winning 220 seats, above the magic number of 218 needed for a majority.
Republicans face particular difficulties in Midwestern states that voted for Trump in 2024 but where dissatisfaction with his economic management, high gasoline prices and the U.S. war on Iran has grown.
It is common for the president’s party to lose control of the House in so-called midterm elections. This happened to Trump during his first administration, when Democrats took advantage of their gains to launch impeachment proceedings against him.
TRUMP DOESN’T WANT REPUBLICANS TO LOSE. HE’S TERRIFIED OF WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DO.
Michael Tomasky’s theory in The New Republic is provocative. It’s also contradicted by Trump’s own behavior.
Tomasky argues that Donald Trump secretly wants Republicans to lose the midterms… pic.twitter.com/u6mgoL8KSL
— Andre Robinson MS (@AndreDoctrine) October 27, 2026
Senate Race Is More Closely Contested
On Nov. 3, 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats will also be up for election. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to the Democratic caucus’ 47.
The opposition faces a somewhat more difficult path: It needs to wrest four seats from Republicans while holding on to its own to secure a majority in the upper chamber, which has among its responsibilities confirming Supreme Court justices.
According to polls, the race is close in seven states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. All the seats being contested in those states are currently held by Republicans, except for Michigan’s, which is held by a Democrat.
One of the races attracting the most attention is in Texas, long considered a Republican stronghold, where Democrat James Talarico now leads Ken Paxton, a Trump ally, by 1.8 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, from the Democratic Party’s more progressive wing, leads Republican Mike Rogers by 2.5 points. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.2 points.
🚨WATCH: President Trump tells a crowd in Michigan it is “their fault” if Republicans lose the midterms
Polls have the Democrats ahead of the Republicans in both the Michigan gubernatorial and US senate races pic.twitter.com/YWhRwHixGa
— Politics US (@PolitlcsUS) October 26, 2026
Gubernatorial Elections
In addition, 36 states will elect governors, with Democrats starting as favorites in 20 of them and potentially winning a majority of the country’s governorships for the first time since 2010.
Expected Democratic victories include those of Xavier Becerra in California and Kathy Hochul in New York, while Republicans Greg Abbott and Byron Donalds lead in Texas and Florida, respectively.
The race is much tighter in three states: Georgia and Nevada, currently governed by Republicans, and Wisconsin, governed by a Democrat.
In Alaska, Cook Political Report identifies Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins as the favorite. His victory would mark his party’s first gubernatorial election win in the state since 1994.
Trump’s Popularity at Record Lows
Against this backdrop, Trump is entering the final stretch of the campaign, which will take him to Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas and Iowa in a last-ditch effort to mobilize his MAGA movement base.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll released Monday puts Trump’s approval rating at 32%, a slight rebound from the record low of 31% recorded last week.
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