Folks,

I just got home from a rather massive party on Avenida Paulista here in Sáo Paulo. Over half a million people were there, and it was simply amazing. (Check out photos and videos of the party on my Bluesky and Instagram - we will have a proper video tomorrow)

I will have more analysis, but I wanted to give a few thoughts on why Lula went from trailing Bolsonaro by 2% in the first round to winning by 3%. While Bolsonaro gained 3 million votes in the second round, Lula gained 10 million new votes.

This happened because of a massive turnout machine built by the 10-million-member WhatsApp Group “Lula’s Army.” In three weeks, it grew from 80,000 members to 10 million.

The group mobilized people in unprecedented ways. It also threw massive parties that brought joy to a movement when Lula was trailing, including massive 1-million-person rallies on Copacabana Beach.

Those rallies motivated people to go out and find those votes. For more about how this dynamic worked, check out our video from the 1-million-person rally on Copacabana Beach.

I will have more analysis tomorrow, but wanted to give you some initial thoughts. After writing more than 30 articles on the election, getting robbed, and threatned with a lawsuit, I am absolutely beat.

We will have some more videos and analysis coming out tomorrow. In the meanwhile, pass the hat so we can cover our costs.

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