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Texas Republicans’ former House Speaker, Dade Phelan, has become the latest conservative to read the writing on the wall: Transphobia is not a winning election strategy in 2026.

“We’re just not paying attention to the issues that matter,” Phelan told Texas Monthly last week*.*

“We’re still running transgender ads. It’s just not resonating. $100 million in ads, $125 million in ads, and nothing’s moved the needle here in Texas in a month in the Senate race.”

The Houston Chronicle’s Gwen Howerton followed up that Q&A with an article of her own, with a headline declaring: “Texas Republican says party’s anti-trans ads are a bust.”

“While Texas voters and voters nationwide have expressed more conservative beliefs on transgender sports inclusion, transgender issues regularly rank at the bottom of voter concerns compared to the economy and the cost of living,” Howerton noted.

Phelan’s remarks come amidst a growing trend. Republicans and Democrats alike are noticing “diminishing returns,” as The Palm Beach Post’s John Pacenti put it, when it comes to investments in transphobic scare ads.

“The 8 to 10 percent of voters in the middle who are going to decide this election, when they hear stuff about boys in girls’ sports, they don’t even know what you’re talking about,” Phelan said. “This never happened in their communities, and they’ve been hearing about it for so many years, and so many other people have been accused of it.”

Phelan isn’t the only one noticing this trend. The American Principles Project, a right-wing think tank largely responsible for the wave of anti-trans sports bans, warned conservative candidates against using trans people as a crutch to prop up their campaign strategy.

“While Democrats may be on the offensive, recent message testing we have conducted in several key swing states suggest that they remain vulnerable on culture-war issues, particularly in their support for transgender ideology and so-called ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI) policies,” a September memo by the APP reads. “Still, pressing the advantage on these issues alone, while important, may not be sufficient.”

The record-setting deluge of anti-trans propaganda may be the defining aspect of this election. On the Democratic side, Ohio’s Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is running for re-election, decried “transgender ideology” in a campaign ad which, after reporting from Erin in the Morning, was denounced by the Equality PAC. South Carolina’s Senate candidate, Annie Andrews, released an ad calling trans women “biological men,” which is a transphobic dog whistle. Similarly, Iowa’s Sarah Trone Garriott’s ad cleared the air around allegations that she was a trans ally by announcing she was against “men in women’s locker rooms.”

On the Republican side, Elon Musk pumped megadonor dollars into anti-trans messaging, solidifying his position as the top donor for Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate run. Right-wing transphobia is not terribly novel, but notably, those very same Democrats found themselves embroiled in the GOP’s attacks anyway. The President called Annie Andrews an anti-trans slur; Trone Garriott’s anti-trans ad was met with even more transphobia from the right. Erin in the Morning is actively tracking nearly two dozen Democrats who have adopted anti-trans stances or deployed transphobic rhetoric.

“What Republicans are talking about is just not what the swing voter is really interested in,” said Phelan. Concerns like the price of gas and groceries, rising debt, and health care bills have been swept aside. In their place, Republicans have manufactured the crisis about transgender people, but as the GOP is finding out, this can only get them so far.

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