Bullets:
Over the next decade, over a hundred thousand satellites will be launched into orbit.
But industry insiders are panicking, because of a worldwide shortage of rockets and companies who can launch them.
A closer look at the financials of SpaceX points to a key reason why: rocket launches are expensive and require massive commitments in capital and staff, while satellite operators make most of the money in the industry.
China is ramping up its launch capability, with several companies building reusable rockets that can compete with SpaceX.
But strong legal restrictions are in place against Western companies partnering with Chinese firms.
Closing scene, Guilin, Guangxi
Resources and links:
CONSOLIDATED AND FURTHER CONTINUING APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2012
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-112publ55/html/PLAW-112publ55.htm
Bad Idea: The Wolf Amendment (Limiting Collaboration with China in Space)
https://defense360.csis.org/bad-idea-the-wolf-amendment-limiting-collaboration-with-china-in-space/
Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/08/theres-a-huge-launch-crunch-right-now-and-it-will-probably-get-worse/
A Rocket Supply Crunch Is Making It Harder to Hitch a Ride to Space
https://www.wsj.com/business/a-rocket-supply-crunch-is-making-it-harder-to-hitch-a-ride-to-space-883f5e53
SpaceX has stopped taking Falcon 9 bookings past 2028, betting everything on Starship
https://www.techspot.com/news/113977-spacex-may-stop-flying-falcon-9-after-2028.html
Pentagon’s Longtime Rocket Launcher Races to Catch SpaceX
https://www.wsj.com/business/the-once-dominant-rocket-maker-trying-to-catch-up-to-musks-spacex-11ac3535
Emboldened by SpaceX, Investors Are Piling Into All Things Space
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/spacex-ipo-space-companies-investments-3b71287f
NEW CSF REPORT SEES UP TO 7,000+ SATELLITES LAUNCHED ANNUALLY BY MID 2030’S, HIGHLIGHTS THE CHALLENGES WITH US LAUNCH INFRASTRUCTURE
https://commercialspace.org/news/_events/scrubbed-media-advisory/
Satellite manufacturing and launch market revenue, worldwide
https://www.analysysmason.com/contentassets/8030c4bd62f54085b60ea78156419d2a/analysys/_mason/_satellite/_provider/_strategy/_aug2024/_nsi041.pdf
Governments’ New Must-Have: Their Own Satellites
https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/governments-new-must-have-their-own-satellites-e7e801a3
Jeff Bezos’ Rocket Startup and Cerberus Compete to Buy SpaceX Rival
https://www.wsj.com/business/billionaires-compete-to-own-spacexs-rocket-rival-d5ab16d4
China’s Commercial Space Boom Poses Strategic Challenge For The US
https://www.edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/chinas-commercial-space-boom-poses-strategic-challenge-for/
China applies to put 200,000 satellites in space after calling Starlink a crash risk
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3339493/china-applies-put-200000-satellites-space-after-calling-starlink-crash-risk
China’s space station, Tiangong: A complete guide
https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station
China’s “eyes” and Iran’s “fist”: Iran dumped GPS, switched to Beidou, and won the war
China quietly takes over another trillion dollar industry
China has caught up in space. That changes everything, everywhere.
Congress wants the International Space Station to keep flying until 2032. Here’s why
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/human-spaceflight/congress-wants-the-international-space-station-to-keep-flying-until-2032-heres-why
Steve Feinberg, Deputy Secretary of War
https://www.war.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/4122887/steve-feinberg/
The First Barrier: The Impact of Export Controls on Space Commerce
https://www.amacad.org/publication/united-states-space-policy-challenges-and-opportunities-gone-astray/section/5
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