A CIA report has said Israel is at risk of civil conflict and state collapse as its genocide in Gaza and attacks on Iran and Lebanon take their toll.

The unpublished August assessment, uncovered by Drop Site News and Capital & Empire, found that Israel’s ongoing military campaigns have degraded the political, economic and social fabric of the country.

Titled Fracture From Within, the report was compiled by the spy agency’s Red Cell, which is tasked with challenging prevailing assumptions within the organisation. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment from the outlets.

It points to deepening anger over the exemption of Haredi men – often referred to as ultra-Orthodox – from military service, large numbers of heavily armed ex-soldiers returning from committing atrocities in Gaza and a cost-of-living crisis as factors that could converge into conflict.

An intelligence source told the publications: “Famously the Freikorps of Germany were PTSD-addled veterans with weapons and bloodthirst. I’m not saying Israel post-Gaza is Germany post-WWI but there are certainly aspects of this that ring similar to me.”

A 2018 rule change made it easier for ex-Israel Defense Forces soldiers to obtain and keep guns, and after 7 October 2023 the government allowed further mass expansion of firearm permits.

Ahead of elections on 27 October, the report also highlights political fractures within Israel, where prime minister Netanyahu is under fire for his failure to prevent the Hamas attacks – amid accusations that he was warned about them in advance.

Netanyahu’s government was accused of triggering a constitutional crisis in July by openly refusing to comply with a supreme court ruling that allowed the country’s broadcasting regulator to continue operating. The government reportedly wanted to prevent the regulator from letting an anti-government critic purchase a major TV channel.

A previous attempt by Netanyahu’s government to curb the supreme court’s power led to mass protests ahead of October 2023.

The CIA’s report was written by “Israel experts,” an intelligence source said: “With the upcoming election and the fissures in Israel we should take seriously their conclusion that Israel is one spark away from real internal conflict.”

One scenario in the report involves Hamas or Hezbollah exploiting domestic weakness, while another mentioned tech companies pulling out of Israel, causing more economic strain.

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