The Democratic Party is increasingly close to taking control of the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll that shows gains in states traditionally inclined toward Republicans.

Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats, but 20 of the 33 seats up for election are in dispute, plus two special elections for vacancies left by Marco Rubio and JD Vance, the report said.

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The NYT/Siena poll shows Democrats with real chances to take seats held by Republicans in historically strong GOP areas. In Texas, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 6 points; in Alaska, Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 7; and in Ohio, Sherrod Brown leads John Husted by 3. In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson holds a one-point lead over Democrat Josh Turek, while Kansas polls show a tie. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is expected to defeat Michael Whatley. Democrats have consistently led in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan for seats they currently hold. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers.

Trends also indicate Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives on November 3, when all 435 seats are up. Republicans currently hold a narrow 220-215 majority, which allowed them to narrowly pass Trump’s tax exemption and health program cut package. RealClearPolitics identifies 40 competitive districts; Democrats need about half to secure a majority. The Cook Political Report says Democrats could gain about 15 seats, reaching a majority near 230. The Fifty PlusOne platform gives Democrats a 99% chance of retaking the House, with a nearly eight-point advantage (50.8% to 43.1%).

Republicans must WIN the 2026 Midterm Elections, and we must use every appropriate tool – whether you vote early, absentee, by mail, or in-person, we must swamp the Radical Left Dumocrats with massive turnout! SO IMPORTANT – PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/ViaKfxehwp

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 3, 2026

Historically, presidents lose the House in midterms due to governing wear, as happened to Trump in 2018. This trend is reinforced by rising diesel prices, persistent inflation, cost of living, growing opposition to the Iran war, immigration policy, corruption, and Trump’s personalism and unpopularity. Recent polls show Latino voters, who leaned Trump in 2024, returning to Democrats, especially in Texas and Florida.

Republicans, facing an adverse panorama, have poured millions into neutralizing Democratic rivals, with AIPAC playing an active role. Senator Bernie Sanders said AIPAC is about to spend 233 million dollars to defeat candidates who speak out against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. He noted AIPAC spent 33 million to defeat Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan primary but lost, and predicted they will keep losing.

In total, at least 4 billion dollars had been invested in advertising for governors and Congress as of September 17, making it perhaps the most expensive midterm election on record, according to Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. Early in September, the Republican National Committee had 125 million dollars available, while the Democratic National Committee had 16.9 million.

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