This article first appeared in Fórum and has been translated and published in English with the authorization of Panamerican Dispatch*. Read the article in its* original Portuguese here.

The Trump administration has ordered a halt to in person service at the U.S. Embassy in Brasília and at consulates across Brazil, citing “security concerns.” The order, issued today, has triggered an alert from the Federal Police and the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin), who warn of a psychological operation coordinated by the White House, in collusion with Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, aimed at a new coup attempt. Fórum obtained this information from the Federal Police and confirmed it with a senior ambassador in the Lula government.

According to information Fórum obtained, the U.S. State Department, led by Marco Rubio, ordered the embassy closed over “threats.” Following that order, reports went out to the Brazilian Intelligence System, known as Sisbin, the network linking Brazil’s federal intelligence and counterintelligence agencies. The reports warn of a “psyop,” a psychological operation originating from the White House meant to sustain a climate of tension through Sunday, when the first round of the presidential election takes place.

“This coup attempt isn’t the traditional kind. It’s meant to intervene and tip the scales toward one candidate,” a Federal Police source involved in preparing the reports sent to Sisbin said. “Their goal is for the leading candidate, President Lula, to be blamed for this ‘climate of violence.’ People will feel afraid, and out of fear they either vote for the other candidate or don’t vote at all. This can drive down turnout enough that there aren’t enough votes to win in the first round.”

The source described this “hybrid war,” which includes participation from social media platforms run by Big Tech, as being referred to internally as Operation Brother Sam II. The name echoes Operation Brother Sam, which the United States launched during the 1964 coup, when Washington sent a naval task force, led by the aircraft carrier USS Forrestal along with destroyers and tankers, to the Brazilian coast, ready to intervene if domestic resistance emerged.

The reports have reportedly gone out beyond Sisbin to government ministries and officials at Brazil’s Foreign Ministry, known as Itamaraty. One official confirmed to Fórum that they had received information about the alert issued by intelligence agencies.

“A hybrid war is underway: a psychological operation generating conflicting, inconsistent information to create this unfavorable climate of insecurity, or the sense that something could happen,” the source said.

The Bolsonaro Family’s Involvement

Intelligence agencies believe that the Trump administration’s decision, issued by Rubio, to suspend operations at the embassy and consulates may have come out of discussions with representatives of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, in what would be the latest U.S. attempt to influence an election in Latin America. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the candidate’s brother and a member of the Liberal Party, is described as one of the main contacts with the State Department in Washington.

Fórum’s information indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign is expected to amplify panic stemming from the U.S. decision, including through statements from the candidate himself.

Fórum obtained part of one of the reports sent to Sisbin that lays out in detail the psychological operation Brazilian intelligence has been monitoring.

“Psychological operations, in their planning and execution, rest on principles that, when properly observed, contribute to their success,” the report states, citing several key factors observed in how the operation has unfolded. Among them:

• Credibility: Psychological operations must be based on facts that lead the target audience to believe the message, since credibility is the primary factor in their success.
• Timing: Psychological operations must be launched at the right moment, carefully coordinated in both time and place.
• Progression: Actions must be staged over time, at an appropriate pace. Each phase should have one or more defined objectives that contribute to the success of the next.
• Unity of command: Direction of psychological operations is centralized at the highest level, which is responsible for guiding and controlling all actions, since differing decisions or interpretations could undo, expose or work against the overall effort.

According to information Fórum obtained, intelligence officers have been monitoring possible U.S. interference for months.

Yesterday, a report from the British newspaper The Guardian drew attention. It revealed that Donald Trump had directed $1 million to a group of Brazilians to target the Supreme Federal Court.

That report lines up with existing suspicions of foreign funding aimed at undermining the judiciary’s credibility and creating a climate of “censorship” in the country.

According to The Guardian, the million dollar grant is part of a $176.9 million package from the State Department’s Human Rights and Democracy Fund, which has begun financing initiatives tied to conservative and right wing causes in various countries.

The program directed at Brazil is called “Countering Lawfare and Censorship in Brazil,” according to the British newspaper.

Plinio Teodoro is a journalist with over 30 years professional experience. His work as appeared in many of Brazil’s largest media outlets, including: Folha de S.Paulo, O Estado de Minas, O Globo, G1, iG, Terra, CBN and Jornal da Tarde*.*

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