Bullets:
Canada is diversifying its economy and diplomatic ties, pivoting away from the United States.
Canadian exports of energy and metals to China skyrocketed in 2026, as major pipeline expansions to the Pacific came fully online.
US-Canadian tariffs on the copper trade is punishing manufacturers in both countries, while ironically China is paying lower prices, despite market shortages.
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Report:
Good morning.
Canada is diversifying away from the United States, and policymakers there are developing new political and economic relationships. The trade war between the US and Canada is as bad as anyone can remember, and so Canada is reaching out to the EU, exploring ways for Canada to join in some capacity.
Canada is also looking even farther East, to Asia, to build up new trading blocs. In the first six months of 2026, Canadian exports to China increased over 30%, with most of that coming from sales of energy and metals—or in other words, the raw materials China needs for their industrial sector:
Exports were $15 billion, which is the highest in almost 30 years. Crude exports more than doubled, year over year, and copper shipments jumped by over 57%.
There’s the money line for supply chain guys—there is a “strong alignment between Canadian supply and Chinese demand”. China wants to diversify its suppliers, and Canada wants more diversification for its customers.
Canada’s PM is Mark Carney, and his government wants to double Canadian exports to non-US markets in the next 10 years. China is already playing an important role, we could say—Carney wants a 100% increase in non-US exports over the next decade, and imports to China popped by over 30%.
The rhetoric from the Trump White House is a big reason for Canada’s outreach to the EU. This was a photo from a White House meeting with European leaders. It was doctored for Trump’s “Truth Social” account, and showed the United States, Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela papered over with the American flag. The post got thousands of links and “retruths”. The Canadian armed forces drew up contingency plans for a US invasion, just in case of a literal hot war.
But the trade war is literal, and that’s what has Canada looking for new markets. Here’s a summary of the tariffs and the counter-tariffs
From here, negotiators expect things to only get worse. And here we see Canada’s problem: 70% of their exports are US-bound:
Those big jumps in exports to China, then, are impressive. But it’s coming from a far lower baseline than what is happening at the top line, with the US relationship.
This is the source document. Canadian exports to China saw big increases; imports from China fell. China reduced tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, which was a boon to farmers there. Canola seeds and pea exports were up strong double-digits as a result. Canola prices have gone from $12 a bushel, to $17.
No other country can replace China’s buying power, and the effect on prices when Chinese firms show up to buy. First six months of 2025, compared to this year: Energy up 82%; metals and minerals up 29%; ag up 1.9%.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline was a big chunk of that export growth; as it expands, with a new pipeline project which may be on the way with even more capacity—that means that Canada will develop new energy markets in Asia, with China already in line to scoop up most of that new supply.
We’ve got some of the numbers in for H2. And the Chinese buys of Canadian energy are accelerating. In August, Canadian crude exports to China jumped 35% since a year ago. It’s especially notable because Chinese imports of crude fell from almost everywhere, except Russia and Canada. Liquefied Natural Gas exports to China more than tripled, up 227%, and sulphur exports jumped almost five times.
Canada is the world’s fourth largest producer of crude oil, at almost 5 million barrels per day. Their pipeline projects are pointed West, to Pacific coast terminals, where tankers from Asia will take every drop that comes through.
But the big boom in copper exports is interesting too. Canada currently supplies almost all the copper ore and concentrates for American manufacturers. And copper markets are under stress, right now, with a current shortage of at least150,000 tons of the refined.
In the next 10 years, consumption will grow, driven by very high-margin industries—electric cars and trucks, artificial intelligence, and defense. Canada is just 12th in the world for copper mining, but is attracting big investment to build new mines and refineries.
Copper is a critical raw material for factories, especially those making high-value-added products. Access to affordable copper is a competitive advantage, and Chinese companies can buy Canadian copper more cheaply than American companies, who pay high tariffs. Lawmakers in New York are calling on the White House to roll back those tariffs on Canadian copper, to protect the manufacturing industry and jobs there:
Be Good.
Resources and links:
Mark Carney’s Audacious Bid to Make Canada an ‘Associate Member’ of the EU
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/canada-alliance-eu-carney-276f1778
How Canada’s Trump headache is fuelling a China trade boom
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3367592/how-canadas-trump-headache-fuelling-china-trade-boom
Trump Posts Image of Map With U.S. Flag Imposed Over Greenland, Other Nations
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/greenland-trump-tariffs-trade-eu/card/trump-posts-image-of-map-with-u-s-flag-imposed-over-greenland-other-nations-uF8rilAJ3tCEIpiDfgdT
Canada plans for US invasion scenario as Trump posts ‘takeover’ map: report
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3340611/canada-plans-us-invasion-scenario-trump-posts-takeover-map-report
Canada’s retaliatory US tariffs take effect as Trump threatens Bombardier sales
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3366693/canada-set-hit-back-trump-tariffs-risking-wider-trade-war
U.S.–Canada Tariffs: Timeline of Key Dates and Documents
https://www.blakes.com/insights/us-canada-tariffs-timeline-of-key-dates-and-documents/
Canada–China Trade in H1 2026: Resource-Led Export Growth and Selective Re-Engagement
https://ccbc.com/ccbc-update/canada-china-trade-in-h1-2026-resource-led-export-growth-and-selective-re-engagement/
Amid Trump trade war, Canada’s exports to China up 30% in first half of 2026
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-china-trade-export-up-2026-9.7340408
China boosts crude oil, LNG imports from Canada as Ottawa-Washington relations sour
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3368210/china-boosts-crude-oil-lng-imports-canada-ottawa-washington-relations-sour
Canada Exports to China
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/exports/china
U.S. TOPS THE LIST – Half the World’s Oil Comes From Just Five Countries – Visual Capitalist
https://energynow.com/2026/04/half-the-worlds-oil-comes-from-just-five-countries-visual-capitalist/
The World’s Largest Oil Producers
https://www.statista.com/chart/16274/oil-producing-countries
Canada’s rise in global copper supply chains
[
The Oregon Group
Canada’s rise in global copper supply chains
As the price of copper soars over global supply-demand concerns, more than US$5 billion dollars worth of investment have been announced in Canadian copper projects in 2025 — with more expected in the coming year…
Read more
7 months ago · 64 likes · 1 comment · The Oregon Group](https://theoregongroup.substack.com/p/canadas-rise-in-global-copper-supply?embedding_publication_id=3320368)
Stop Trump’s Tariff Tax: Kennedy Warns Escalating Trade War with Canada Threatens Western New York Manufacturing Jobs
https://kennedy.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2484
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