The Red Sea state of Eritrea currently seems to be a key US and Israeli focus in the Horn of Africa. This is largely because global trade looks set to face even more disruption due to the recent Houthi takeover of Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
Both the US and Israel desperately want to secure Red Sea traffic after the immense disruption their war on Iran has brought to the Strait of Hormuz. And in the wake of Houthi advances, international and regional powers are increasingly seeking to ensure Eritrea and others on the African side of the sea are willing and able to help.
While the US and Israel usually pursue the same strategies, however, there seems to be a key difference in their approaches to Eritrea. The US, for example, seems to prefer stability and a friendlier relationship with Eritrea’s regime. Israel, meanwhile, seems to be part of a network seeking the regime’s downfall.
Israel’s falling out with Eritrea
Following its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea and Israel developed a strategic relationship. Eritrea has often voted in favour of Palestinian rights at the UN and against the crimes of the Israeli Occupation Forces, but nonetheless remains one of Africa’s only countries not to recognise Palestinian statehood.
Despite some reports suggesting otherwise, Eritrea’s regime has rejected accusations of hosting military facilities for Israel and other nations. Eritreans have long been the main African asylum seekers in Israel, and the apartheid state wasn’t comfortable with that. It apparently paid Eritrea’s embassy to cover costs for people who were willing to return to the country.
Israeli-Eritrean ties cooled in the late 2010s as Eritrea and Ethiopia grew closer (due to a Saudi peace deal) and external alliances were less of a priority. During Eritrea and Ethiopia’s brutal war against the Tigray region (2020-22), Eritrea refused to accept Israel’s new ambassador, eventually resulting in Israel closing its embassy.
Amid Western sanctions resulting from the Tigray war, Eritrea moved closer to Iran (and countries like China and Russia). This link with key Israeli foe Iran increased Israel’s hostility to Eritrea. And Israeli analysts even went as far as to call Eritrea an Iranian proxy. (Eritrea has denied this.)
Planning an Eritrean coup from Israel and Ethiopia?
Eritrea has a repressive regime and one of the highest poverty rates in Africa. There are currently increasing tensions between Eritrea and neighbouring Ethiopia which could potentially escalate into a full-blown regional war.
Ethiopia, meanwhile, has Africa’s second-biggest population and one of its biggest economies. And its own repressive regime was responsible for one of the deadliest conflicts so far in the 21st century, helping to bring international conflict deaths to their highest level since the 1970s. Unsurprisingly, it’s a close friend of Israel.
On 20 September, Haaretz reported that Eritreans in Tel Aviv are plotting to overthrow Eritrea’s regime. There’s apparently an international council linking diaspora communities around the world. The leader of the movement is in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, and its businessman treasurer has been holding meetings in Washington.
The movement is primarily seeking support from the US, Israel, and Gulf dictatorships.
Meanwhile, a militia of Afar people (who live in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti) has also escalated its struggle against the Eritrean regime since late 2025. Citing abuses against them, they have sought support from Israel and opposed the recent US decision to remove sanctions on Eritrea.
Overall, it seems pretty clear that anti-regime forces see Israel as an ally. That’s hardly a surprise considering the increasingly cold relationship between Israel and Eritrea, or Israel’s willingness to tank regional stability for its own interests.
Israel, however, is not the only player in the region.
The key regional alliances of Eritrea and Ethiopia
Far from entering Iran’s regional network, Eritrea has actually aligned in recent years with traditional Western allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia, along with the Sudanese Armed Forces. Eritrea reportedly joined a recent coalition to counter Houthi disruption of Saudi trade.
Eritrea’s relationship with Ethiopia, however, has once again soured, partly due to Ethiopian desires to annex Eritrean land.
Ethiopia’s regime, meanwhile, has increased its ties with Israel in recent years. Despite its historic pro-Palestinian voting record at the UN, Ethiopia’s delegation was a lonely supporter of war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu‘s 2026 UN speech.
Ethiopia has also been very close to the UAE and Sudan’s RSF paramilitaries. Some analysts say both Israel and the UAE support Ethiopia’s efforts to ensure access to the Red Sea via Eritrea.
Many believe the ongoing tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia is a key driver of regional conflicts (Sudan being perhaps the clearest case). One of those may indeed be the current revival of Ethiopia’s Tigray war where, despite Tigrayan division, a unification of anti-government forces has fuelled a full-on offensive against the Ethiopian army.
There have been many months of increasing hostilities resulting from ongoing injustice after the 2020-22 war, and no meaningful international mediation to resolve it all. And on 23 September, the main Tigrayan military force — the TPLF — launched a major offensive.
The TPLF took control of several airports, and attacked Ethiopian government positions in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Some analysts have accused the world of being quiet about longstanding Ethiopian state repression but piping up now that there’s a visibly greater threat to the regime’s power.
The US focus is the Middle Eastern side of the Red Sea, so it prefers ‘stability’ on the other side
Regarding the US, it seems the superpower’s preference right now is to keep its regional military focus on the Middle East. So in the Horn of Africa, a stable relationship with both Eritrea and Ethiopia seems to be its focus.
Ethiopia is a big economy that the US doesn’t want to push further towards its adversaries, especially when its policies and preferences appear to be pro-Western. So the US has condemned the new attacks on the government.
Unlike Israel, the main US priority right now is for trade (and warships) to flow freely through the Red Sea. Donald Trump has been facing increasing unpopularity at home due to the economic problems of his own making.
With the Houthis already making Red Sea transit harder from the Middle Eastern side, ensuring ‘stability‘ on the African side is key. And this focus probably led the Trump regime to drop its moral critiques of Eritrea’s regime and pave the way for the recent decision to drop sanctions on Eritrea “to advance US regional interests“.
The US is also being cautious in its response to the Houthis, especially considering how expensive and unsuccessful its previous campaign against the movement was. It may also see recent events as an opportunity to push a reluctant Saudi Arabia into an official recognition of Israel (possibly in exchange for Israeli support in fighting the Houthis).
Overall, US and Israeli approaches to Eritrea may differ. But that’s not something that will meaningfully affect their destructive alliance. Because both nations are ultimately part of the same imperialist project seeking dominance in the region, over both its resources and political consensus. And little will change that.
Featured image via Encyclopaedia Britannica
By Ed Sykes
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