By William Serafino – Sep 24, 2026
In a few days, the future of Brazil will be decided in a context marked by open interference by the Trump administration. On October 4, in Latin America’s largest economy, Brazilians will vote in the first round of the presidential elections. They will elect governors, senators, and deputies at the federal, state, and district levels.
Recent opinion polls show a virtual tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, setting up a highly politically charged battle for the presidential seat at the Palácio do Planalto.
A national election turns international due to resource geopolitics
Washington’s various pressure maneuvers aimed at benefiting the son of the convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro have turned the Brazilian election into a geopolitical battleground. Combining sanctions, tariffs, and a manufactured tone of conciliation, Trump seeks to tip the scales in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro with the aim of materializing strategic objectives of the Monroe Doctrine.
Although Trump’s ideological preference for Bolsonaro Jr. and his attempt to boost him in the presidential race have been evident for a long time, a document revealed a few days ago highlighted the strategic nature of Trump’s gamble, shaped by a long-term vision with continental dimensions and focused on undermining China.
On September 12, journalists Guilherme Amado and João Pedroso de Campos from the media outlet Amado Mundo published an explosive text written by André Marinho, an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro. Marinho is running as a candidate for Rio de Janeiro state governor and is the son of Bolsonaro’s substitute senator.
Under the title “Alliance for Prosperity,” Marinho presented the Trumpist donor group Red Rockbridge, founded by JD Vance in 2019, with a “strategic memorandum” outlining the main lines of a potential Washington-Brasília partnership in the highly contested rare earth sector if Bolsonaro Jr. wins the elections.
In the English PowerPoint presentation, Marinho labels Lula as “pro-China” and proposes that the US position “Brazil as the main supplier and processing center for critical minerals aligned with the West in the Western Hemisphere.”
This offer is highly appealing to Trump, who is desperately seeking alternative supplies to break China’s significant geopolitical advantage in terms of rare earth reserves and processing—a set of exceptional magnetic minerals central to manufacturing technological products and military inputs.
China not only holds 48% of the world’s total rare earth reserves but also controls nearly 90% of global refining.
China has leveraged this point of superiority against the US, imposing general and selective export controls on the US as the contentious bilateral dynamic has evolved.
Since the very possibility of competing with Beijing in the technological and military spheres depends on a stable supply of these resources, Washington has launched a hemispheric hunt in an attempt to secure independent, preferential access.
This is where Brazil comes in, a country that holds the second-largest reserve on the planet, with 23% of the world’s total available today.
Lobbying for the spoils
Marinho’s initiative, validated by Bolsonaro—the presented text bears his name and clearly indicates it is part of his 2026 electoral campaign—represents an offer marked by the plundering of Brazilian sovereignty.
In exchange for putting Brazil’s immense rare earth potential at the exclusive service of the US, the right-wing candidate hopes the White House will intensify pressure against Lula to prevent his re-election.
For Trump, the proposed business is unbeatable in terms of investment and return.
With the mere act of influencing the contest—without assuming significant political costs—to satisfy the Bolsonaro clan’s anti-national spirit, Trump would hypothetically secure a loyal vassal willing to unleash US corporate spurs and who, ultimately, would owe his rise to Planalto to the White House until the last day.
Under this calculation, the promised access would become a safety valve for the challenge posed by China’s rare earth export controls. A high-value geopolitical gain when considering that it materialize without the need to resort to a conventional war or an exhausting maximum pressure campaign, which could even be counterproductive in the medium term for US interests.
On the other hand, the lobbying dates are important, as well as the network of contacts that made it possible to present Marinho’s document to the Trumpist donors close to US Vice President Vance.
In March, the document was drafted, and nine days later, on March 28 to be exact, Flávio participated in the CPAC in Dallas, where he declared, “Brazil will be the battleground where the future of the hemisphere will be decided, because Brazil is the United States’ solution to break its dependence on China for critical minerals, especially rare earth elements.”
Nearly a month later, the US company USA Rare Earth announced the acquisition of Serra Verde, located in Goiás state, the only Brazilian company dedicated to the production of rare earth minerals. The minerals are extracted from the rich Pela Ema deposit, where significant deposits of ionic clays, terbium, yttrium, and dysprosium are concentrated.
In February, Serra Verde had already received a loan of over $500 million from the US International Development Finance Corporation to expand its mining operation in Goiás. In this context, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led an international conference on critical minerals in Washington with more than 50 foreign delegations. There, the Vault Project was announced, a $10 billion initiative designed to accelerate rare earth production and establish supply lines independent of China.
It is evident that Marinho and Flávio understood the strategic importance Trump was giving the issue. That is where Bolsonaro’s ally, whose singer sister Giulia Be is married to Conor Kennedy, the son of US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., made his move.
Kennedy Jr. was the bridge between Marinho and Vance when making an anti-national offer that involves the promise of regulatory changes favorable to US companies, the granting of mining licenses (closing off space to China), and the construction of a critical minerals club with the US when Flávio is elected president with the help of US interference.
What is at stake
The timeline of events helps us understand the magnitude of various issues of cardinal importance. Among them, the Pentagon’s decision last month.
The Department of War, led by Pete Hegseth, announced a $750 million investment aimed at securing “mixed rare earth carbonates” from the Pela Ema mine. The elements are considered “fundamental for national defense and economic security.”
The announcement also clarified that the White House’s increasing attacks against Lula are part of a geopolitical investment, framed within the Monroe Doctrine, in exchange for a lucrative geoeconomic return and the containment of China’s influence in South America. Marinho’s text is the guarantee for the gamble, linked in turn to Peter Thiel and Rebecca Mercer through their close ties to the Rockbridge Network.
Throughout 2026, the White House has been playing ahead to build the framework for access to Brazilian minerals, revealing the internal plot—now visible—of pressure against Lula’s government.
Consequently, something far more significant is at stake than replacing a progressive government with one aligned with the US, adding a new ally to the Shield of the Americas and claiming the region’s ideological shift as a strategic turn.
US Meddling in Brazilian Elections, Preparing for Possible Military Intervention
This is an existential choice for Washington. Trump is risking US military supremacy in the region and the ability to compete with Beijing in crucial areas such as technology, from semiconductors to AI development.
In April of this year, I published an article titled “Shield of the Americas and Rare Earths,” in which I warned that the Serra Verde operation held supporting the military capacity of this alliance as the armed wing of the “Donroe Doctrine” as a main objective.
This hypothesis is now at the center of the geopolitical dispute over Brazil, marked by US extractive voracity structurally anchored to the sustainability of its still-significant technological and military capacity.
What is at stake in Brazil is not an ideological position, but the very materiality of the US empire, under an offer by irresponsible politicians who would happily exchange Brazil’s sovereignty for crumbs from Washington.
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/SC/SF
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