President Donald Trump drew ridicule on Monday when he announced he was working on an agreement to import potash, an important fertilizer for US farmers, from Belarus.
In a social media post, Trump claimed that the “massive deal” with Belarus would let the US import potash for “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada,” which he described as “very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”
Canada supplies roughly 80% of all potash used by US farmers, and Trump’s trade war against America’s largest trading partner has been putting upward pressure the prices of all Canadian imports.
However, even if Trump’s deal to buy potash from Belarus comes to fruition, it is unclear how much relief it would provide to US farmers, who have been also been paying a heavy price his illegal war with Iran, which has led to record-high diesel fuel prices.
As noted by a Monday report from Bloomberg, Belarus in 2021 only shipped around 700,000 tons of potassium fertilizers to the US before trade with the nation was restricted following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Canada, meanwhile, supplied the US with more than 10 million tons of such fertilizers last year.
Bloomberg also pointed out that “Belarus doesn’t have enough capacity to supply large volumes to the US” at the moment “because production for the year is already under contract.”
There are also several logistical challenges to shipping large quantities of fertilizer from Belarus.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston observed in a social media post that Belarus is a landlocked country with no easy way to export its products to the west after Lithuania terminated its transit agreement with the country at the start of the Ukraine conflict.
Canada, Johnston added, is “right next door.”
Journalist Diana Henriques offered a similar assessment of the challenges of importing potash from Belarus.
“It is 5,080 miles from Nebraska to Minsk,” Henriques wrote. “It is about 700 miles from Nebraska to Saskatchewan, the source of most Canadian potash. That’s gonna have to be one heckuva discount to cover the transportation differential.”
Ross O’Connor, former foreign affairs and national security advisor to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, was openly dismissive of Trump’s Belarus gambit.
“Good luck with that,” O’Connor wrote. “Canada exports more potash to the US than Belarus produces.”
David Ryan Miller, professor of government at American University, offered a satirical summary of Trump’s latest geopolitical maneuver.
“We are spurning our longtime democratic ally directly to our north in favor of an autocratic regime aligned with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that is 4,000+ miles away,” Miller wrote. “We are very smart, serious people!”
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