Is Türkiye next? That question dominating Israeli airwaves as Ankara – a NATO ally that’s suspended trade with Tel Aviv but not Tehran – may be running out of room to stay neutral in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, joins Rania Khalek and Zoe Alexandra to break down what’s really driving Israel’s growing antagonism toward Erdogan’s Türkiye: no longer just a difficult diplomatic counterpart, but a country that may hold the power to reshape the region’s entire security architecture in ways that threaten Netanyahu’s “freedom of action” – Israel’s ambition for total dominance. Cafiero lays out why, after the fall of the Assad government in 2024 and the start of the genocide in Gaza, Israel fears a strong, centralized Syrian state aligned with Ankara. He draws a line between Israel’s deepening relationship with Greece, Türkiye’s expanding influence in Somalia near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, and the new Mecca Defense Pact linking Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan – a configuration Israel sees as a direct threat to regional hegemony. And with Turkey a NATO member, Cafiero breaks down the real question everyone’s asking: if Israel strikes Turkish forces directly, does NATO’s Article 5 actually kick in? Cafiero also explains why Doha and Ankara have built one of the Middle East’s most consequential partnerships – and why, a year after Israel’s strike on Qatar, Doha is working to diversify its security relationships beyond Washington, with Türkiye’s partnership central to that strategy. Watch full episodes of BT Live, join breakthroughnews.org as a member today! #breakthroughnews

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