"In 2027, Morena’s party structure will be a crushing machine," Mellado writes.

This article by Pedro Mellado Rodríguez originally appeared in the September 11, 2026 edition of SinEmbargo, an independent Mexican digital news outlet.

The opposition parties that will appear on the ballots in the elections of Sunday, June 6, 2027, must abandon all hope of defeating Morena to strip it of its majority in the Chamber of Deputies. That is what the most recent polls say, anticipating that the PAN and PRI, together, would not reach enough votes. And slipping in between them would be Movimiento Ciudadano, which would very likely displace the National Action Party (PAN) from second place as a political force in the country.

Polling exercises carried out by the firms Enkoll and Buendía & Márquez conclude that Morena’s voting margin in their September 2026 measurements ranges between 35 and 41 percent. Meanwhile the PAN reaches its best showing with 12 percent, the same as Movimiento Ciudadano, while the PRI’s best performance tops out at nine percent. Morena’s presumed ally, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), registers between three and five percent support.

The average turnout in the six midterm elections to choose federal deputies in our country between 1991 and 2021 is 51.69 percent. If we round it to 52 percent, we could estimate that, out of an Electoral Roll of just over 100 million citizens, a little more than 52 million people could go to the polls on Sunday, June 6, 2027. The Electoral Roll as of this past Thursday, August 28, 2026, had 100,862,772 citizens registered with a valid voter ID.

This past Wednesday, September 2, 2026, the consulting firm Enkoll published a poll concluding that 41 percent of citizens would vote for the Morena party in the contest for the federal Chamber of Deputies. Out of an estimated turnout of 52 million people, that percentage favoring Morena would represent 21 million votes.

The National Action Party would capture 12 percent; Movimiento Ciudadano would add the same percentage, and the PRI would have eight percent of popular support. In total, the opposition as a whole would have 32 percent. But if Movimiento Ciudadano went its own way, to try to take second place as a political force in the country from the PAN, the PAN-PRI opposition would be left with only 20 percent.

In this way, the PAN and PRI would add up to just over 10 million votes, and on its own Movimiento Ciudadano would have a little more than six million votes. With three percent, the Green Party would reach a million and a half votes, and with two percent the Labor Party (PT) would barely add up to one million votes.

The PT and PVEM would be at risk of losing their registration if they ran separately from the coalition that Morena led in the previous electoral process. And they could even lose the votes that citizens have handed them as a generous tribute for their presumed support of the Fourth Transformation project, since many Morena supporters already see them as traitors to the cause.

On the other hand, in the scenario laid out by the poll conducted by the firm Buendía & Márquez, published this past Monday, September 7, 2026, Morena would capture 35 percent of the votes in next year’s elections, something like 18 million votes, while, together, the PAN with 11 percent and the PRI with nine percent would add up to 20 percent of the potential votes, for just over 10 million ballots.

Movimiento Ciudadano, with nine percent, according to Buendía & Márquez, would add up to a little more than four and a half million votes. The Green Party could achieve five percent of the votes, around two and a half million ballots, while with two percent of the votes, the Labor Party would lose its registration.

But there are other factors that must be taken into account. Morena currently governs 23 states of the Republic, in which 214 relative-majority seats will be contested and where the maroon party will have every advantage. In 17 of those 23 states, Morena won in 2024 all the relative-majority seats that were at stake, totaling 108 seats.

In another six states that Morena currently governs, the maroon party lost only one of all the relative-majority seats contested in each of those states. The PAN, PRI, and PRD won only one relative-majority seat each in Durango, the State of Mexico, Michoacán, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Yucatán.

The opposition would only have a chance to defeat Morena and win relative-majority and proportional-representation seats in the First Electoral Constituency, where the maroon party governs only five of eight states. In this region the PAN governs Chihuahua; the PRI runs Durango, and Movimiento Ciudadano, Jalisco.

But the opposition’s greatest strength for winning relative-majority and proportional-representation seats is in the Second Constituency, where the opposition governs four of seven states: the PAN rules in Aguascalientes and Guanajuato; the PRI runs Coahuila, and Movimiento Ciudadano holds the executive branch in Nuevo León.

The majority of the proportional-representation seats in the three remaining Electoral Constituencies will go to Morena, which runs the seven state governments that make up the Third Constituency; in the Fourth Constituency the six states that comprise it are also governed by the maroon party, and in the Fifth Constituency, three of the four states have Morena governments, including the State of Mexico, the state with the most votes and the most electoral districts, with 40. In this Fifth Constituency the PAN governs Querétaro, one of the four states that make it up, where Morena and its allies won three of six relative-majority districts in the 2024 federal deputy elections.

If you observe what is published on social media, and in particular what daily saturates X, formerly Twitter, you might conclude that the world and the country are falling apart, and that the activism of certain PAN, PRI, or Movimiento Ciudadano figures will steer their parties toward a stunning victory in 2027. However, in the real world, the presence of most of those parties and those politicians is very far from the activism they display in cyberspace.

In 2027, Morena’s party structure will be a crushing machine. This past Monday, August 31, 2026, the Prerogatives and Political Parties Commission of the National Electoral Institute (INE) presented its report on the triennial validation of the membership rolls of the national political parties. Councilor Carla Astrid Humphrey Jordan noted that having affiliated members is fundamental because they constitute the basis of a party’s legitimacy of origin, its operating structure, and its foundation in the country’s democratic system.

And on that terrain, it is the Morena party that shows enormous strength, officially registering 11,629,541 members, who will be the basis of a crushing electoral structure in the elections of Sunday, June 6, 2027, when the country will vote for 500 new federal deputies, 17 governors, as well as local deputies in 31 states and municipal presidents in 30 states.

Far behind is the opposition party that comes closest to Morena, in this case the PRI, with 819,103 affiliated citizens. In total, Morena holds 75.44 percent of the members that the eight officially registered parties add up to across the Republic.

Even in the four states currently run by the opposition and where the governorships will be renewed, Morena also has a wide advantage in terms of its party structure. It surpasses the PAN in Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, and Querétaro, and has a comfortable lead over Movimiento Ciudadano in Nuevo León.

As can be seen, there is no reference point that would suggest the opposition is in a favorable position to pull off a surprise in the 2027 elections, much less that it could strip Morena of its majority. The poverty reflected in the polls prefigures a very adverse scenario, particularly for the PAN and PRI. Even without its highly questionable partners, the PT and PVEM, Morena could win the majority in the next Chamber of Deputies of the Congress of the Union.

Pedro Mellado Rodríguez  
A journalist who for five decades has been a keen and critical observer of public life in Mexico. He has covered every news beat and held every editorial responsibility.

The post The Opposition Could Not Beat Morena in 2027 appeared first on Mexico Solidarity Media.

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