Bullets:
Over 8 million bpd of refining capacity is offline, damaged by wars in the Persian Gulf and Europe.
American refineries are running at nearly 100% capacity, and are taking advantage of record-high crack spreads for diesel and other fuels.
But no new refinery expansion is planned for heavy crude, which is what Canadian drillers in Alberta send South for refining.
New shipments from Venezuela are expected, which will create even more bottlenecks at US refiners.
Canada is building new pipelines to the Pacific, for offtake to China, India, South Korea, and Japan, who are desperate to source new supplies.
Closing scene, Tiantai Mountain, Taizhou
Resources and links:
Canada’s Oil Pivot to Asia Is Starting to Materialize
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canadas-Oil-Pivot-to-Asia-Is-Starting-to-Materialize.html
Discount on Western Canada Select widens
https://boereport.com/2026/08/07/discount-on-western-canada-select-widens-56/
The World’s Largest Oil Producers
https://www.statista.com/chart/16274/oil-producing-countries
Asia is poised to take up 70% of Canadian oil exports, pipeline executive says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-is-poised-take-up-70-canadian-oil-exports-pipeline-executive-says-2026-09-08/
Canada’s Oil Exporting Future: Trans-Mountain, China, Asia, and Beyond
https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/canadas-oil-exporting-future-trans-mountain-china-asia-and-beyond
U.S. refineries running at near-record highs
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36872
U.S. Refinery Utilization Reaches 96.2% as Global Fuel Markets Tighten
https://pro.edgex.exchange/en-US/news/article/us-refineries-96-percent-capacity
Is the U.S. Refining System Being Pushed Too Hard?
https://mansfield.energy/2026/09/03/is-the-u-s-refining-system-being-pushed-too-hard/
When was the last refinery built in the United States?
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=29&t=6
Why Oil Majors Don’t Want to Build New U.S. Refineries
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Oil-Majors-Dont-Want-to-Build-New-US-Refineries.html
America First Refining is building the first new oil refinery in the U.S. since 1976. Here is what it means for the Gulf Coast.
https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/refining-petrochem/america-first-refining-is-building-the-first-new-oil-refinery-texas/
India’s Reliance Industries paid Trump $10 million before he took office. It keeps getting wins from Trump.
https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/indias-reliance-industries-paid-trump-10-million-before-he-took-office-it-keeps-getting-wins-from-trump/
Reliance Joins $300B Texas Refinery Project Announced By Trump; 20-Year Fuel Deal Signed
Truth Social, Donald Trump on VZ oil deal
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117175567133618952
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