Ecuador is confronting a high risk of electricity supply shortfalls and service interruptions throughout 2026, driven by an asymmetrical El Niño pattern causing a severe dry season across the eastern watershed, which directly endangers 33 hydroelectric plants comprising 83% of the national hydraulic capacity.
The current scenario stands in stark contrast to the 1997–1998 El Niño crisis. Historical reports from ECLAC and CAF (now the Development Bank of Latin America) show that extraordinary rainfall during that period lashed both the coastal region and the eastern basin, securing full reservoir levels and allowing uninterrupted hydro generation without flow restrictions. However, the vulnerability then was defined by physical network destruction, as landslides and mudflows destroyed three high-voltage transmission lines and buried roadways and infrastructure at the Paute plant—which at the time supplied 70% of national demand.
Sector damages were calculated at $36 million in contemporary dollars, while the total socioeconomic impact reached $2.882 billion, equivalent to 15% of the 1997 GDP.
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The National Action Plan for the El Niño Phenomenon 2026–2027 warns that current atmospheric anomalies will produce abundant rainfall exclusively along the coastal strip, while the Amazon and the Austro region are expected to record severe meteorological droughts, especially starting in October. Former Energy Minister Fernando Santos Alvite emphasized that both events are incomparable, attributing the divergence to a shift in precipitation behavior.
Official flow figures confirm the declining water supply. The Paute River registered an average flow of 114.13 m³/s in 2026, down from the 119.45 m³/s recorded in 1997. By the end of June 2026, flows in the Mazar, Paute, Agoyán, and Minas San Francisco basins had fallen close to the critical 10th percentile.
Meanwhile, the reservoir recorded a drop of 5.43 meters between August (2,152.67 meters above sea level) and September 2026 (2,147.24 masl). As of March 31, 2026, the National Electricity Operator reported that key reservoirs—Amaluza, Pisayambo, and Daule-Peripa—were operating significantly below their maximum operational levels.
Anticiparnos es una forma de cuidar.
Hoy, con la presencia de @mjpintoec, la @Vice_Ec, @CancilleriaEc y @Riesgos_Ec dialogaron con @LauraIMelo y el Equipo País de @ONUEcuador para fortalecer la preparación ante El Niño.
Coordinar hoy puede hacer la diferencia mañana. pic.twitter.com/Fs8FE4pzBg
— La ONU en Ecuador (@ONUecuador) September 2, 2026
Compounding the water scarcity are structural shortcomings at the 1,500-MW Coca Codo Sinclair plant, the country’s largest power facility. The plant lacks a sediment defense system, forcing machinery shutdowns both from excessive floating debris and from drastic flow reductions. In March 2026, the Coca River recorded an average of just 134.2 m³/s—a figure representing 55% of its historical average. Furthermore, regressive erosion affecting the riverbed since 2020 continues to keep the intake structure under ongoing risk.
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