On 27 August, we reported that Reform’s polling has remained fairly static for the past few months in the aggregate. This means the party has remained fairly static with some pollsters; that it’s dipped with others, and that it remains ahead with some. The thing about politics, though, is that nothing remains static forever. And we are seeing signs that things could further worsen for Reform’s chances:
| First poll to have Reform in 3rd Place since April 2025. https://t.co/iR7c7AGUgu
— electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) September 1, 2026
Runners up
As we’ve noted before, Reform UK has done a good job of creating a core base of voters. Because of this, the party could potentially hold on to a 20%+ vote share until the general election. As you can see in the poll above, however, there is a significant number of voters left to appeal to, which means there’s potential for other parties to edge ahead of Farage & .co.
The strength and weakness the party has is that it’s never been the party of government. This could help it hold on to its core base, because it may be difficult to convince these voters that Reform aren’t the answer until they’ve seen how the party performs in government.
At the same time, other voters might be willing to consider the party, but could easily be turned off if Reform politicians present themselves as incompetent or corrupt. And this is a problem for Reform, because over the past few months, Farage and his underlings have not put their best foot forwards.
As we’ve reported:
This is how things look in Politico’s Poll of Polls:
Reform had a good run in which the party managed to present itself as a credible alternative to Keir Starmer’s government – a government which was broadly disliked and prone to scandal. Now, Reform itself is broadly disliked and prone to scandal. As such, even if Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch face unpopularity and controversy, that won’t necessarily benefit Farage’s party. When every party is scandalous, scandal ceases to be a consideration when voters choose who they’re voting for.
Double shock for Reform
Another point to note with Reform UK is that it’s polling hasn’t always translated into electability. It won big in the 2025 and 2026 local elections, but with a year-on-year decline. As Stand up to Racism highlighted following the 2026 locals:
These results cannot be dismissed as solely a protest vote. However, this was no landslide for Reform. In councils where the party won more than half the seats, Farage’s party won on average just 36% of the vote – mostly on a turnout below 50%.
Farage described the results as marking a “historic shift”. Yet in private he will be disappointed because his party polled less well than in 2025.
If the voting on May 7 had been repeated nationally, Reform would have polled 26%, with the Greens second on 18%, Labour and the Conservatives on 17% each – the parties’ lowest-ever joint share – and the Liberal Democrats 16%, with the remaining 6% going to the SNP, Plaid Cymru and independents.
By comparison, analysis of the 2025 local election results in England for a House of Commons briefing paper estimated Reform won 32% of the vote, with 19% for Labour, 18% Conservative, 16% Liberal-Democrat and 15% Green Party. Other estimates of the 2025 election vote share had Reform on 30% – either way the 2026 elections saw a decline in the party’s share of the vote.
So, in local elections with low turnout, Reform has outperformed national polling. The flip side is that in important by-elections voters have been motivated to vote tactically to keep the party out. In Makerfield – where Labour handily beat Reform – there was also a high turnout:
Makerfield is the second highest turnout in a by election since 2000, and first time there’s been an increase in turnout from a general election in a by election since 1987. pic.twitter.com/8scmHJgDv9
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2026
Problems
There were many factors at play in Makerfield, but a desire to block Reform certainly seemed to be one of them. And this is going to be an ongoing issue for the party up and down the country. Because as much as it’s energised that its core voters, it’s turned many others against Reform.
Featured image via Carlos Jasso / Politics Home / politics.co.uk
By Willem Moore
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