Given how hated Keir Starmer was, most people expected Andy Burnham’s government to be more popular than what came before it. The question was how much more popular Burnham would be, and if he’d be able to sustain these gains in the long run.
We now know Labour has experienced a bump from Burnham taking over. According to the pollsters, however, the ‘Burnham bounce‘ appears to be all bounced out.
Exclusive: The “Burnham bounce” has ended just weeks after the new prime minister entered Downing Street, leading pollsters have said, as they warned there would be no point in Labour calling an early election.
Read more: https://t.co/o4JY8L1VNf pic.twitter.com/CuNAtP4qns
— The Independent (@Independent) August 31, 2026
Burnham bounce on downwards trajectory
When Starmer resigned, Reform had been leading Labour in the polls for more than a year. Since Burnham took over, the two parties have drawn level in Politico’s Poll of Polls — which “aggregates data from multiple sources to give a more accurate picture” — with Labour briefly taking a lead.
Some polls have Labour leading while others have Reform at the top.
Speaking to the Independent, pollster John Curtice said:
I believe that the ‘Burnham bounce’ came to an end after two weeks.
This isn’t to say Burnham couldn’t improve Labour’s polling in future. Insted, what pollsters are arguing is that the boost, which comes purely from changing leaders, has ended. In other words, Burnham will actually have to improve things if he wants to grow support.
Given his actions to-date, we don’t have much confidence in him doing that:
- Greens slam Burnham’s ‘free labour for Sainsburys’ con
- Burnham bottes it on nationalising Thames Water
- Burnham’s latest cost of living plan is textbook tinkering around the edges
Many others lack confidence in Burnham’s ability to rise to the moment, including writer Joe Guinan.
The material reality of the crisis has now reasserted itself, as was easily predicted. https://t.co/1yDA8J5WHb https://t.co/vkdpGRBVSs pic.twitter.com/L7uitsU5V8
— Joe Guinan (@joecguinan) August 31, 2026
Early election?
Answering the question many are asking, Curtice also said:
There is no rational basis for Labour to call an election now.
Some have speculated Burnham could call a snap election, especially as Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, pulled a similar trick in 2025. The difference is, Carney enjoyed a significant poll boost as a result of Donald Trump’s attacks on Canada; attacks which lowered the standing of Carney’s right-wing opponent.
Another difference is Burnham inherited a massive majority. Although there’s limited time left for this government, Burnham can get a lot more done in three years with a massive majority than he could in five with a minority (if he even won the election).
Notably, Burnham himself has said he won’t call an early election. That doesn’t mean he won’t, of course, because Burnham has said a lot of things he’s gone back on.
The argument for calling an election is that Burnham is constrained by the manifesto pledges from 2024. The counter-arguments to this are:
- The public would forgive him for breaking Starmer’s commitments if doing so made their lives better.
- Given the people he’s surrounded himself with, it’s hard to imagine Burnham actually wants to make people’s lives better.
A key example of this is is the following:
Thames Water is up to its eyeballs in debt. Besides that, it has done a horrible job of maintaining its network.
Burnham could put it back into public ownership and the public would celebrate him. Our prime minister hasn’t chosen this route, however, which is pretty dubious, especially as his chief of staff has links to the private water industry.
Burnham can’t rely on his comms style
Burnham clearly hoped that having more personality than Starmer would be enough to bump Labour back into the realm of 30%+ polling. That hasn’t happened, and given his lack of ambition, there’s no reason to think Labour won’t return to -20% polling. In other words, this could be the prime minister who kills the Labour Party.
Featured image via Wall Street Journal
By Willem Moore
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