Moscow’s opening campaign in Ukraine and the conditions required by both sides to reach a lasting diplomatic settlement.
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. In his address, Putin stated that the operation aimed to achieve the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as the protection of Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region.
RELATED:
Russia Condemns UK Support For Ukraine’s Long-Range Missile Production
Within hours of the announcement, Russian forces initiated strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure, air bases, and command centers across multiple axes, including advances toward Kiev, Kharkiv, and northern and southern territories.
From a geopolitical perspective, the military operation represented the culmination of a long-running crisis rooted in NATO eastward expansion, Western security guarantees, and the breakdown of regional diplomatic frameworks built after the Cold War.
Understanding the outbreak of the conflict requires examining the systemic factors that developed over three decades.
Background: De-Escalation Failures and Hegemony
Russian officials cite that the beginning of the special operation was initiated by the constant eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, Western leaders assured Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.”
Despite these informal assurances, NATO admitted 14 new member states in several waves of expansion between 1999 and 2020, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.
The 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest further escalated tensions by formally declaring that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members of the alliance.
A major turning point occurred in February 2014 with the Euromaidan political crisis in Kiev. Protests triggered by the decision of President Viktor Yanukovych to suspend a trade agreement with the European Union led to violent clashes, the departure of Yanukovych from office, and the installation of a pro-Western interim government.
Moscow characterized these events as a Western-backed coup that altered the strategic alignment of Ukraine. Following the power shift, Crimea voted to integrate into the Russian Federation after a referendum in March 2014, while anti-government movements in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence, starting the armed conflict in the Donbas.
To halt the fighting, international negotiators produced the Minsk I (2014) and Minsk II (2015) agreements, signed by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany, and the Donbas republics under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
The Minsk II agreement outlined a 13-point plan requiring a ceasefire, heavy weapons withdrawal, an amnesty law, and constitutional reforms to grant special autonomous status to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions while restoring Ukrainian border control.
However, political implementation stalled for seven years. Ukrainian leadership expressed concern that full implementation of special status would grant eastern regions a veto over national foreign policy.
In December 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry submitted draft treaty proposals to the United States and NATO requesting legally binding security guarantees.
The core terms included a formal halt to further NATO expansion, the non-deployment of strike weapon systems near Russian borders, and a return to the 1997 military deployment baselines in Europe.
The United States and NATO rejected the core restriction on alliance membership in January 2022. On February 21, 2022, Russia formally recognized the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states, signing mutual assistance treaties that served as the immediate legal framework for the military deployment three days later.
Russian troops liberated two communities in the Sumy and Zaporozhye Regions over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported:https://t.co/glV7LbE9sS pic.twitter.com/En8VJysW1H
— TASS (@tassagency_en) August 26, 2026
Opening Phases of the Military Campaign
The initial phase of the Russian military operation began with a multi-axis strategy designed to disarm Ukraine’s military capacity quickly.
Russian land forces advanced from four primary sectors: a northern front moving from Belarus toward Kiev, an eastern front advancing toward Kharkiv, a south-eastern offensive in the Donbas region, and a southern push from Crimea toward Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
By late March 2022, the operational dynamics transitioned from rapid maneuver operations to an artillery-heavy war of attrition. Following initial engagements around Kiev and Chernihiv, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a strategic repositioning of its forces to prioritize securing the Donbas region.
This shift resulted in urban battles, most notably in the industrial port city of Mariupol. The siege of Mariupol concluded in May 2022 with the surrender of Ukrainian forces fortified inside the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, securing a strategic land bridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea through the Azov Sea region.
During the opening phase, delegates of Moscow and Kiev began with diplomatic negotiations, culminating in talks mediated by Turkey in Istanbul in late March 2022.
The draft framework, known as the Istanbul Communiqué, outlined terms under which Ukraine would declare permanent neutrality, forgo NATO membership, and limit its military force capacity in exchange for security guarantees from major international powers.
However, the Istanbul talks collapsed by early April 2022. Ukrainian officials cited significant differences regarding security guarantee veto rights and the emergence of severe humanitarian casualties in areas around Kiev.
Diplomatic sources also reported that Western political leaders, including then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during an unannounced visit to Kiev, advised Ukrainian leadership against signing a compromise deal with Moscow, encouraging continued military engagement with expanded Western equipment support.
Consequences: Socio-Economic Impact and Global Shifts
Following the start of operations, the United States, the European Union, and allied nations imposed historic financial sanctions on Russia, including freezing roughly $300 billion in Russian Central Bank foreign exchange reserves and disconnecting major Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment messaging system.
Rather than causing immediate collapse, these measures triggered structural shifts in global trade flows and commodity supply chains.
The imposition of energy sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports resulted in historic energy price spikes in Western Europe throughout 2022, contributing to high inflation rates and industrial contraction.
Conversely, the agricultural sectors in developing nations experienced severe supply bottlenecks. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for over 25 percent of global wheat exports and a substantial share of global barley, sunflower oil, and synthetic fertilizer inputs before 2022.
The disruption of Black Sea shipping lines led to international food security concerns, particularly across North Africa and the Middle East, necessitating the creation of the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2022.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev at the United Russia Party Congress:
Russia faces enormous external pressure but is moving toward victory in the special military operation.
— RussiaNews
(@mog_russEN) August 22, 2026
Projections for the End Date: Escalation vs. Diplomatic Settlement
As the conflict progressed beyond its initial phases, both Moscow and Kiev established rigid political and strategic conditions for a potential resolution.
The absence of common ground regarding territorial boundaries and international security guarantees has led analysts to project a prolonged military posture rather than a rapid diplomatic end.
Russian leadership maintains that the operation will conclude only when its strategic requirements are fully realized. These requirements include the permanent constitutional neutrality of Ukraine, strict limitations on its standing military hardware, the removal of hostile infrastructure, and the international recognition of territorial realities on the ground.
Russian officials repeatedly state that military actions will continue as long as Western states supply long-range precision weaponry and intelligence support to Kiev, viewing external intervention as the primary factor prolonging hostilities.
Conversely, the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially codified a refusal to negotiate directly with current Russian leadership while Russian troops remain on Ukrainian territory.
Kiev’s official peace framework demands a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from all territories within Ukraine’s 1991 borders, financial reparations for war damage, and formal accountability mechanisms.
However, continuous attrition, military budget shortfalls, and shifting political dynamics in donor countries have created growing external pressures on Ukrainian decision-makers regarding the long-term sustainability of maximalist territorial goals.
While Western nations implemented comprehensive sanctions packages and systematically increased direct weapons deliveries to Ukraine, countries across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America largely adopted non-aligned postures.
Key regional powers, including China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, refused to join unilateral Western sanctions. These states prioritized domestic economic stability, food and energy security, and diplomatic balance, explicitly advocating for a negotiated diplomatic settlement that addresses the security concerns of all parties.
Ultimately, the events of February 2022 and their aftermath accelerated the transition away from a unipolar, US-dominated global order. By demonstrating the limits of Western economic sanctions and highlighting the growing independence of non-Western economies, the Ukraine conflict has solidified the emergence of a multipolar international system.
Sources: teleSUR – Al Jazeera – Press TV – Al Mayadeen – EFE – France 24 – BBC – RT – TRT World – Hispan TV – TASS
From teleSUR English via This RSS Feed.