Reform's polling static despite weeks of infighting & scandal
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Has Reform hit the floor for its voter base? The party has certainly remained fairly static in the Poll of Polls despite constant controversy

Nigel Farage of Reform UK

It’s been a chaotic few weeks for Reform UK, and the party’s polling has reflected that. While Farage’s lot are nowhere near where they were a year ago, they have managed to remain somewhat static in the polls. As Politico’s Poll of Poll demonstrates:

This state of affairs suggests we may be approaching the floor for Reform’s vote share is. It also suggests the party is going to struggle to get a majority in any upcoming elections. We say this because Reform hasn’t just lost ground; it’s also negatively polarised voters against it.

NEW: Before Reform suspended Tim Montgomerie, he warned that the party’s “number one problem” is tactical voting against it.

Our new research shows the scale of that problem: 43% of the British public say they’d be unhappy with a Reform government, compared with 36% who’d be…

— HOPE not hate (@hopenothate) August 27, 2026

The good, the bad, and the middling

Politico’sPoll of Polls is an aggregate of all the polls. Reform’s polling is static with them right now because various polls have them doing better, worse, or the same. It’s worth noting that averaging the polls out doesn’t necessarily make them more accurate, and also that polls are mostly useful for tracking how public sentiment changes over time – not for predicting the future.

The bad recent polls for Reform include this from More in Common:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (=)
RFM: 23% (-2)
CON: 22% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 9% (=)
RES: 4% (New)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 21-23 Aug.
Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

— electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) August 26, 2026

And this from Deltapoll:

🌹 | Highest Labour % in ANY Poll since December 2024. https://t.co/R60fxe0Q5K

— electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) August 25, 2026

The middling polls for Reform, meanwhile, include this from YouGov (Reform have dipped, but they’re still just barely ahead of Labour):

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
LAB: 22% (=)
CON: 20% (+1)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 23-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 16-17 Aug.

— electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) August 25, 2026

Reform also had a positive poll with Find Out Now:

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-1)
CON: 20% (+2)
GRN: 13% (-1)
LDM: 11% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 26 Aug.
Changes w/ 19 Aug.

— electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) August 27, 2026

Most of the above polls were conducted in the week ending 23 August. To give you an idea of how Reform did that week, the following are some of the stories we published:

As you can see, Reform’s week was shaped by infighting, mistrust, despair, and misguided attempts to big-up Donald Trump. The infighting has been the big issue, with the party suspending journalist Tim Montgomerie for criticising Zia Yusuf. That resulted in Reform-linked figures splitting between those who support the dreadful Montgomerie and those who support the dreadful Yusuf:

This is the right move, after months of complaints over Tim briefing the media and/or acting as a source attacking Reform’s more right-wing or Farage loyalist figures.

You simply cannot have a party member with a large public profile going on Tory press podcasts and slagging off… https://t.co/woi2fSbmQ9

— Raheem J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) August 18, 2026

All this happened after Farage publicly said he would be having a word with Yusuf over the following:

EXCL: Nigel Farage slaps down Zia Yusuf for branding Ben Wallace a “traitor”.

The Reform leader tells @TheSun: "That’s too strong a word. I shall give him a ticking off.

“I’ll speak to him today. But yeah, it’s over the top.” https://t.co/XfJqBZFX3H

— Jack Elsom (@JackElsom) August 11, 2026

Yusuf didn’t delete the offending tweets; he didn’t apologise for what he said, and he’s doubled down on the inflammatory rhetoric ever since. In other words, he’s a loose cannon. And that led to hilariously grandiose tweets like the following in which he called himself a “lethal electoral threat”:

What I’d do to have the phone number of Zia Yusuf’s drug dealer

Boy’s off his chops

The absolute Benny Hill of this is spectacular pic.twitter.com/5oAXT3FiOJ

— Stuzi 🐝🐝 (@stuzi_pants) August 18, 2026

Yusuf also seems to be gunning for his ex-Tory colleagues:

Yusuf, we have a problem pic.twitter.com/B9ZDWEW0lf

— Mr Ethical 🚩 (@nw_nicholas) August 18, 2026

Farage

On the plus side for Reform, the week ending 23 August passed without news of a new Farage scandal, gaffe, or travesty. There have been many of those in the past few months too, including:

We did get a new Farage scandal this week, which was this:

What’s next for Reform?

As we’ve said elsewhere, we don’t have much confidence in Andy Burnham. While he’s promised to ‘end neoliberalism’, his actions in office have blatantly been a continuation of that ideology:

Burnham bottes it on nationalising Thames Water

As a result of actions like the above, we think the public will eventually turn on Burnham. Reform was the beneficiary of the public turning on Starmer, but there’s no guarantee that the party will reap the same rewards next time. Because at this point, the sheen has well and truly come off Farage’s party.

Featured image via Dan Kitwood

By Willem Moore

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