El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a 95% chance of becoming very strong by late 2026, threatening rainfall, farming, food supplies and markets across Latin America.
Related: El Niño Has 69% Chance of Being the Strongest Since 1950
Super El Niño Faces 95% Chance of Historic Strength
The Super El Niño phenomenon has a 95 percent probability of reaching very high intensity in the Pacific between October and December 2026, according to the latest assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, known as NOAA.
The forecast follows several months of rapid warming in the equatorial Pacific. The development has placed Latin American governments and agricultural sectors on alert because a very strong El Niño can alter rainfall, temperature and water availability across large parts of the region.
NOAA’s latest outlook, issued on August 13, confirmed that El Niño is strengthening and assigned a probability of more than 90 percent to a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. cpc.ncep.noaa
The agency also estimated a 69 percent chance of a historic event between October and December. Such an event would exceed the strength of previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
The updated projection represents a significant increase from July. At that time, the probability of a very strong episode stood at approximately 81 percent, meaning the estimate rose by around 14 percentage points within one month.
NOAA defines a very strong event as one in which the three-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reaches at least 2°C above normal.
The Niño 3.4 region covers a central section of the equatorial Pacific and is one of the main areas used by scientists to monitor the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
The latest official outlook gives only a five percent probability that the event will remain below the very strong category during the October–December period.
The warning does not mean that every country will experience the same weather conditions. El Niño affects regions differently, and its consequences depend on geography, season, local climate patterns and the strength of the atmospheric response.
However, a very strong episode can significantly increase the likelihood of drought in some areas, intense rainfall in others and sharp temperature changes across the region.
Super El Niño Strengthens Across the Pacific
NOAA Climate Prediction Center | World Meteorological Organization
During the first week of August, the sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached approximately +1.8°C, according to specialist weather outlet Meteored.
The value is notable because it was reached unusually early in the year. By comparison, the 1997–1998 El Niño—the strongest event in the historical record at the time—did not exceed that threshold until August 20.
The rapid warming is concentrated in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When warmer water moves toward the eastern Pacific, it affects atmospheric circulation, cloud formation and the distribution of rainfall across the Americas and other regions.
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate pattern, but the intensity and consequences of each episode vary. Scientists monitor ocean temperatures, winds, pressure patterns and changes in the upper layers of the Pacific before assessing its likely global effects.
NOAA’s August diagnostic discussion said the event is already established and strengthening. The agency now expects it to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into early spring 2027. cpc.ncep.noaa
The agency’s forecast models show additional warming through the end of the year. That projection increases the likelihood that the event will reach or exceed the threshold associated with a very strong El Niño.
The term “Super El Niño” is used by media and analysts to describe an exceptionally powerful event. It is not a separate official category in the same way as El Niño or La Niña, but it generally refers to an episode with unusually high ocean temperature anomalies and broad climate effects.
The strength of the ocean warming is only one part of the analysis. Scientists must also determine whether the atmosphere responds in a way consistent with El Niño, including changes in trade winds, pressure and tropical rainfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology of Australia reported that El Niño is firmly established and that the Niño 3.4 index had reached +2.20°C during the week ending August 9. It said further strengthening was likely during the Southern Hemisphere spring. bom.gov
The combination of oceanic and atmospheric indicators has increased confidence in the forecast. Nevertheless, seasonal predictions remain probabilistic and cannot determine the exact timing or severity of impacts in every location.
The current projections are stronger than those issued earlier in the year. This does not mean that all forecasts will continue to rise, but it does indicate that the climate signal is becoming more pronounced.
Scientists will continue updating the outlook as new observations become available. Changes in ocean temperatures, wind patterns and atmospheric pressure could affect the final intensity of the event.
Latin America Prepares for Agricultural Risks
FAO Climate Change and Food Security | International Research Institute for Climate and Society
The potential arrival of a very strong Super El Niño has raised concerns across Latin America because the region depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, livestock, fisheries and hydropower.
In parts of western South America, El Niño can bring heavier rainfall and flooding, particularly along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. Intense precipitation can damage roads, bridges, homes, crops and irrigation systems.
In other areas, including parts of the Amazon basin and northeastern Brazil, the phenomenon can contribute to below-average rainfall and prolonged dry conditions.
The effects can vary from one season to another. A region that experiences flooding during one El Niño episode may receive less rain during another, depending on the position of the warm waters and the interaction with other climate patterns.
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable because planting and harvesting schedules depend on predictable rainfall. Excessive rain can destroy crops through flooding, while drought can reduce yields and increase the need for irrigation.
Coffee, soybeans, maize, wheat, rice, sugarcane and livestock production could all face risks if the weather becomes more volatile.
The consequences may extend to food markets. Reduced harvests can increase prices, while disruptions to roads and ports can make it more difficult to transport food from producing regions to consumers.
Small farmers and rural communities are often the most exposed because they have limited access to irrigation, insurance, credit and emergency support. A single failed harvest can affect household income and food security for an entire year.
The phenomenon can also affect fisheries. Warmer Pacific waters may reduce the availability of nutrients near the surface, disrupting marine ecosystems and affecting fishing communities in countries such as Peru and Ecuador.
Hydropower production may be affected as well. Reservoirs can decline in regions experiencing drought, while heavy rainfall can damage dams, transmission lines and other infrastructure.
Governments across Latin America are being urged to prepare early-warning systems, review water-management plans and provide farmers with climate information before the most intense phase of the event arrives.
The region’s response will depend on the quality of its public institutions and the resources available for adaptation. Wealthier countries may be able to invest in reservoirs, flood defenses and agricultural assistance, while poorer communities face greater limitations.
Geopolitical Context
The emergence of a potentially historic Super El Niño has implications beyond weather forecasting. Climate shocks can intensify social inequality, increase migration and place pressure on governments already facing economic and political challenges.
Food-price increases may affect urban populations throughout Latin America, while export restrictions or reduced production could influence global commodity markets.
The event may also deepen competition over water. In areas affected by drought, farmers, cities, industries and energy producers may demand access to the same limited supplies.
Floods and droughts can create cross-border consequences, particularly in river basins shared by several countries. Governments may need to coordinate data, reservoir management, emergency response and humanitarian assistance.
The outlook also matters for international climate negotiations. A major El Niño can temporarily raise global temperatures and expose the vulnerability of countries that have contributed least to greenhouse-gas emissions.
Although El Niño is a natural phenomenon, climate change can increase the severity of heat extremes and intensify the consequences of altered rainfall. The two processes are different but can interact, creating more dangerous conditions for ecosystems and communities.
For Latin America, the central challenge is to avoid treating the forecast as a distant possibility. Preparation must begin before droughts, floods and crop losses occur.
Authorities will need to strengthen emergency communication, protect critical infrastructure, support small-scale producers and coordinate food reserves.
The 95 percent probability cited by NOAA refers to the likelihood of a very strong event, not to a guaranteed disaster in every country. Its effects will depend on local conditions and the response capacity of governments.
Nevertheless, the early warming of the Niño 3.4 region and the updated international forecasts show that the risk is serious.
If the event reaches historic intensity, the Super El Niño could become one of the most consequential climate challenges of late 2026 and early 2027, affecting food production, water supplies, energy systems and markets across Latin America and beyond.
From teleSUR English via This RSS Feed.