On Thursday, Zambians will go to the polls in general elections in which President Hakainde Hichilema hopes to be reelected for a second term leading Zambia, a nation in south-central Africa considered strategic for the energy transition due to being one of the world’s largest copper producers.

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A total of 8.7 million voters—out of a population of approximately 22 million—are eligible to vote at roughly 13,500 polling stations, which will be open between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. local time, according to the Zambian Electoral Commission.

The population must elect its next head of state for a five-year term, as well as the composition of the National Assembly (unicameral Parliament) and municipal governments, in the eighth general elections since the return to a multi-party system.

Two Candidates with Real Chance

Fourteen candidates are vying for the presidency. Until three months ago, Hichilema’s victory seemed almost assured; however, the landscape shifted when part of the opposition, deeply fragmented after the death of former president Edgar Lungu (2015-2021) in 2025, managed to unite in a coalition.

On one side, Hichilema is running for the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND), backed by some fifteen other parties. The president presents his economic management as his main achievement, including the agreement reached in March 2024 to restructure more than $3.5 billion in debt in Eurobonds, after Zambia became the first African country to default during the COVID-19 pandemic.

His critics point out that he has not addressed the high cost of living, unemployment, or energy shortages in a country where more than 70% of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank. Civil society organizations and UN experts have denounced an increasingly hostile environment for the opposition, dissidents, and journalists, citing accusations of “arbitrary” arrests under cyber laws and sedition charges.

On the other side, the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance (“All of Us Together” in Chichewa), led by lawyer Brian Mundibile of the National Reconciliation, Unity and Prosperity Party (NRPUP), is also competing. Mundibile, a former ally and minister of Lungu, has promised to defend individual freedoms and renegotiate agreements with foreign mining companies that he claims are not beneficial to the country.

#AfricaInFocus

Zambia–AU-COMESA Election Observer Mission: Zambia holds general elections in two days, and the African Union (AU) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) have deployed the AU-COMESA Election Observation Mission (AU-COMESA EOM).… pic.twitter.com/QhP9j2QlJI

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Copper and Geopolitical Competition

Zambia is at the center of geopolitical competition between China, the United States, and the European Union for its mineral wealth, particularly its copper reserves. Beijing recently revitalized the 1,860-kilometer Tazara railway line, while Washington and the EU are funding the Lobito Corridor, a railway that will link the Atlantic with the mines of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia via Angola.

The opposition has also rejected constitutional changes that would increase the number of members of parliament and electoral districts, arguing that they favor the ruling party.

Observation missions from the European Union, the African Union, and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will monitor the elections. Under Zambian law, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election must be held between the two candidates with the most votes.

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