Amelia Schafer
ICT

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s campaign to become the first Native American woman to serve in the U.S. Senate has attracted some big money opposition: prediction market companies, the online outfits that allow users to place “bets” on real-world events.

Tribal gaming officials call the markets “an existential threat” and Flanagan has been outspoken in her opposition to them – and called out her Aug. 11 Democratic primary opponent for accepting donations from the industry, including from executives of Kalshi, a leading prediction market company.

“My primary opponent, Congresswoman Angie Craig, has taken maximum contributions from Kalshi’s founders and executives,” Flanagan, White Earth Nation, said in a statement to ICT. “That’s not a coincidence, they’re investing in a candidate they believe will protect their interests.”

A spokesperson for Craig’s campaign told ICT that Craig has supported strongly regulating prediction markets. She serves as the ranking member of the U.S. House AgricultureCommittee, which oversees the Commodities Futures Trade Commission. The CFTC regulates prediction markets.

“She has been consistent and tireless in her calls for the CFTC to have the resources to achieve that including increased funding, more staff, and a fully appointed commission,” the spokesperson told ICT. “[On July 20] she welcomed the Indian Gaming Commission to testify before Congress, and she looks forward to continuing her work with Indian Country on these and other important issues.”

But accepting campaign contributions from prediction market executives and at the same time offering support for tribes is problematic, said Mark Macarro, president of the National Congress of American Indians and chairman of the Pechanga Band of Indians.

“[Craig has been] been the recipient of … money from Kalshi,” Macarro said. “Yet, she, full of pride, said that she supports what we’re doing and is going to back tribal sovereignty. There’s a point, it’s not even a step or two down the road, there’s a point right at the gate where you can’t do both. You can’t support prediction markets and say you support tribes, because what the prediction markets are doing is an existential threat to our existence.”

Craig and Flanagan are both fighting to see who will run in the general election for the seat held by Democrat Tina Smith, who is retiring. The Cook Political Report ranks the race “likely” to end up in a win for the Democratic candidate, making the primary all the more important – one reason the race is already Minnesota’s most expensive primary in Minnesota history, with spending topping $12 million by the start of July.

Some of that is due to the money pouring into races across the country from online wagering operations.  An analysis of Federal Election Commission fundraising records throughout the first quarter of 2026 revealed sports betting giants like DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics have contributed a combined $72 million to the Win for America Super PAC, according to Public Citizen and Federal Election Commission data.

The Win For America PAC spent a considerable amount of money in the Georgia senate races, a state where significant bills to legalize gambling are currently being weighed. Donations came through two smaller PACs, the Republican-focused American Conservative Fund and Democrat-focused American Future, according to reporting by Reuters.

“The money that they are putting into these super PACs is the result of the revenue they are earning off of the online gaming that they are operating right now,” said ICT political pundit Holly Cook Macarro. “Because it is a life and death situation for them … they are investing in it. And the one the top place they’re investing in is the Minnesota United States Senate race in which Peggy Flanagan is currently leading.”

While much of the funds pouring into the Minnesota race are untraceable as the result of a 2010 Supreme Court decision allowing corporations and other outside groups to spend unlimited amounts on elections, some receipts have come to light.

Last year, Craig’s campaign received $15,000 in individual donations from executives at Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market services in the United States, according to records from the United States’ Federal Election Commission.

Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour donated $7,000 to “Angie Craig for Minnesota,” while co-founder Luana Lopes Lara donated $7,000 and Head of Corporate Development Sara Slane donated $1,000 to Craig’s campaign. These donations occurred in September 2025, according to the FEC records.

“When we see the founders of Kalshi weighing into this race, we know I’m not their gal,” Flanagan said during an appearance Wednesday afternoon on the Indian Gaming Association’s “New Normal” podcast. “Why do they give? They give because they expect something in return and I think that’s something my opponent has a long track record of supporting corporate interests.”

Representatives from Kalshi did not respond to ICT’s request for comment.

According to FEC records, Craig also received donations from cryptocurrency PAC, Coinbase Innovation, who donated $2,500 to her campaign in the spring of 2025.

Cryptocurrency is regulated the same way as prediction markets, through the CFTC, and is another form of digital assets.

Why are the industry players investing in the Minnesota Senate race? They are hedging their bets, according to Cook Macarro, a Red Lake Nation citizen, who said that lawsuits filed against the industry will likely end in the U.S. Supreme Court.

“They [cryptocurrency traders and prediction market companies] are investing up and down the ballot because they know that if they lose in the courts, they will be seeking a legislative solution and they are building and investing in candidates with an eye for the long term,” Cook Macarro said.

And the flood of prediction market money is not an outlier. Corporations have spent a combined $517 million in the 2026 election cycle, nearly tripling the amount spent in 2022’s midterms, according to Public Citizen, a nonprofit advocacy organization. Money is often directly given to Political Action Committees rather than campaigns itself, making it extremely difficult to trace.

“We’ve seen labor be big players, we’ve seen big oil be big players, but the scale and the amount of money that these super PACs like Fairshake, like the ones that are active in Minnesota, North Star Dawn, etc., and the folks that are funding them, it is like an unending spigot of money,” Cook Macarro said.

Flanagan has positioned herself very publically against prediction markets and the threats they pose to Indian gaming. In the eyes of cryptocurrency corporate leaders, Flanagan wouldn’t be a good advocate and would instead back tribal gaming interests.

“These are real economic threats: tribal gaming is the most successful economic engine for Indian Country ever,” said Flanagan about the $46.2 billion industry. “I know how hard tribes have worked to negotiate compacts with their state governments in accordance with federal law, and I know personally how these funds provide critical governmental services to our tribal citizens. They’re funding my primary opponent because they know I will stand firm.”

Earlier this year, Minnesota becamethe first state in the nation to ban prediction markets from operating within its boundaries, a decision Flanagan said she was proud of.

“I will stand up to the legal and legislative efforts of the prediction market operators, like Kalshi and Polymarket, because they are threats to tribal gaming rights,” Flanagan told ICT. “The threat is not hypothetical: Kalshi and other sports betting offerings are doubling their market share by the quarter.”

The online betting platformshave even begun to secure major election related partnerships. 270 To Win, a site providing real-time election data, recently announced a partnership with Kalshi, to report results from the upcoming 2026 mid-term elections. Kalshi allows users to bet on all mid-term elections and receive a payout if their bet is correct. Sometimes bets are placed on the same elections Kalshi’s own executives have been recorded as donating to.

All of which makes the landscape confusing. Even down to the regulatory level,tribal leaders told ICT.

Prediction markets, which allow for individuals to place bets on elections or other real-world events, are framed as an exchange of an event contact rather than traditional gambling. Because of this distinction, instead of operating through state-by-state gaming compacts, like those signed by tribes, online gaming platforms fall under the federal oversight of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. And because they’re regulated by the commission, these online gaming platforms can operate in all 50 states, in turn, completely skirting state-specific gambling operations.

The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988 paved the way for tribes to amass wealth like never before. In many states, this law allows for tribes to have complete exclusivity when it comes to gaming.

As defined by the provisions within the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, a large portion of revenue earned from Indian Gaming operations must feed directly back into tribes, supporting local infrastructure such as schools, roadways, healthcare and more.

The real threat comes from the fact that markets like ones operated by Kalshi aren’t regulated the same way a tribal casino is or even a non-Native owned casino within a state.

“These prediction markets and their offerings threaten what is really the most successful economic tool and engine Indian Country has ever seen, and that is tribal tribal gaming,” Cook Macarro said. “Prediction markets are doubling their market share by the quarter. It’s absolutely remarkable.”

As prediction markets grow, their profits cut into the market share of tribes, Cook Macarro said.

And in several states, tribal gaming is supposed to be the only gaming occurring within state boundaries. Since prediction markets are governed by the CFTC, they skirt those regulations, threatening that exclusivity, Macarro told ICT.

The CFTC is supposed to be a commission of five members each appointed by the president, but as of July 2026 CFTC Chairman Micheal Selig is the only member of the committee.

“[The CFTC is] putting new regulations in place, regulations that will expand these prediction markets from sports betting to full-blown casino-style gambling,” said David Bean, Chairman of the Indian Gaming Association and a citizen of the Puyallup Tribe of Indians. “This one-man show has taken the CFTC from crops to props, all on his own with no new laws from Congress. It undermines tribal sovereignty, it undermines the jobs that we’ve created and the agreements that we have in place with our state partners.”

If prediction markets continue to operate at this rate, unchecked, they will continue to cut into the Indian Gaming industry’s profits directly impacting tribal economies nationwide, Cook Macarro said.

“Indian Country, I think, needs to do the same and be very aware of how every vote matters in this closely divided Senate, on this issue,” Cook Macarro said.

A lot more is at stake than just whether or not Flanagan will make history if she wins the primary in August, Cook Macarro said.

“In Minnesota, the fact that she [Flanagan] is Native American has almost become tangential,” Cook Macarro said. “For Indian Country that race is really become again about: ‘Who is going to stand with Indian Country against the existential threat of the prediction markets to the Indian gaming industry industry?’”

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