Now that Keir Starmer has gone, the much anticipated ‘Burnham Bounce’ seems to have materialised. If Andy Burnham can keep this momentum going for Labour, it will be bad news for Reform UK and the Green Party.
BREAKING | Labour surge to poll LEAD (!)
Lab: 28% ( +4 )
Ref: 24% ( -2 )
Con: 22% ( – )
Lib: 12% ( +1 )
Grn: 8% ( -3 )
{ Seats }
Nat: 59
Poll: More in Common, 24-27 Jul (+/- vs 22 Jul) pic.twitter.com/AkKoPyIlQf
— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) July 27, 2026
Labour turns a corner
The above poll is from More in Common. For reference, this was where their polling had Labour in May — just weeks after Starmer’s government suffered the disastrous local elections:
Reform UK extend their lead to 10 points in this week’s voting intention, as Labour drop back 3 points.
LAB 20% (-3)
CON 19% (+1)
GREEN 13% (+3)
LIB DEM 12% (-1)
OTH 3% (nc)
N = 2111 | Fieldwork 22-25/5 | Changes w/ 18/5 pic.twitter.com/58WJP5JrAV
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) May 27, 2026
Speaking of the local elections, this was how things went for Labour:
BREAKING: Final Local Election Results 2026
Seats / councils
OTH: 245 (+43) / 1 (+1)
64 NOC councils (+23)
— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 9, 2026
And this was how things went for Labour earlier in the year in the Gorton & Denton by-election:
Changes w/ 2024
— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) February 27, 2026
Clearly, things were not going well for Labour under Starmer. The question was whether the party’s fortunes would improve under another leader.
While we still have doubts about the long-term viability of the Burnham project, it’s obvious he’s doing enough to win back voters right now. He’s also doing it at a time when Reform UK and Nigel Farage are facing multiple ongoing scandals, including:
- Multiple investigations into a £5m ‘gift’ Farage received from a crypto billionaire
- Accusations Farage is shilling for crypto on behalf of his donors
- Questions over three houses Farage seemingly failed to declare
- Failure to declare financial support from convicted fraudster Posh George in the run-up to the 2024 election
Our problems with Reform go well beyond the financial issues too. This is a far-right party that has normalised anti-migrant hatred among a significant portion of the electorate. Reform proved so successful on this front that Starmer’s Home Office began copying Farage’s homework, with Burnham continuing that trend.
Burnham’s problems go deeper than this too, as we’ve reported:
- Burnham backs ‘conditional’ welfare support in first PM interview
- Burnham’s ‘new’ cabinet packed with friends of genocide
- Useless Burnham has sacked off renationalisation
It also seems clear that the moderate tinkering Burnham is proposing won’t notably change people’s lives. This will ultimately be a problem because people’s quality of life has dropped significantly over the past few years, and unless that reverses, people will continue to rebel against the government of the day.
Contrary to all this, Burnham could potentially find a project that wins enough support to secure another election. The much-needed National Care Service he’s currently hinting at could be such a project. It could also be another of his many U-turns.
2029
The More in Common poll isn’t the only one showing a Burnham Bounce (or a Reform recession). Check out this from YouGov:
{ Seats }
Poll: YouGov, 26-27 July (+/- vs 23 July) pic.twitter.com/w4Vqri3dKO
— Stats for Lefties
For reference, this was where YouGov had the parties after the local elections:
{ Seats }
Plaid: 11
Poll: @YouGov, 10-11 May (+/- vs 5 May) pic.twitter.com/dUXtyp1md8
— Stats for Lefties
You can’t read too much into any given poll and pollsters can’t predict the future. What they can do, however, is demonstrate the shifting fortunes of the political parties. And clearly, in this moment, people are drifting away from Reform and the Greens and over to Labour.
We’ve got doubts about Burnham’s ability to maintain this, but if he can pull off the National Care Service, he could certainly last far longer than his predecessor.
Featured image via the Canary
By Willem Moore
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