Inegi data shows the first investment upturn in 19 months, driven by residential construction and imported machinery, though analysts warn the pillars are narrow.

This article by Clara Zepeda originally appeared in the July 7, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper.

Mexico City. After 19 readings of year-on-year declines, Mexico’s gross fixed investment, which represents the value of durable goods acquired by production units, rebounded 5.1 percent in April, its best annual change since July 2024, when the effect of the previous administration’s large projects was still being counted.

According to data reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the fact that investment broke the streak of declines it had accumulated for more than a year and a half is due, above all, to the boost from residential construction and imported machinery.

With seasonally adjusted figures, to make the periods more comparable by calendar effect, the Monthly Indicator of Gross Fixed Investment (GFCF), which represents the value of durable goods acquired by production units, averaged 107.4 points in April, which represented a monthly rebound of 4 percent, the second consecutive one, and its best month-on-month change since November 2020.

By component, construction spending rose 6.5 percent monthly in April, and machinery and equipment —both of domestic and imported origin— grew 2 percent month-on-month this past April.

At an annual rate, construction spending increased 8.8 percent in April, while machinery and equipment rose 0.9 against the fourth month of 2026.

Residential construction investment revived fixed investment, which rebounded 12.4 percent monthly, its best growth since August 2020, and 16.7 annually, its largest change since March 2025. But machinery, equipment, and other imported goods also helped, 7.1 and 9.8 percent monthly and annually, in that order.

With original figures, without a calendar effect, investment grew 5.9 percent against April 2025, affected by the drop in domestic machinery and equipment. Meanwhile, from January to April it posted a contraction of one percent against the same period last year.

Imported Goods

Private consumption closed April with growth of 2.1 percent, mainly due to the acquisition of imported goods. Nevertheless, this indicator had an annual advance of 3.1 percent in March 2026.

According to Inegi, the Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP) averaged 113.7 points in April 2026, which represented a marginal advance of 0.1 percent monthly, after the previous rebound of 1.2 percent, with seasonally adjusted figures, to make the periods more comparable.

The monthly advance was explained by the consumption of domestic goods, which rose 1.1 percent in April against March, since services fell back 0.1, but imported goods contracted 1.5 percent. Compared with April 2025, imported goods shot up 11.7 percent and domestic goods showed no change.

With original figures, without a calendar effect, Inegi specified that in the January-April 2026 period, private consumption showed an advance of 2.2 percent annually; imported goods rose 12.2 percent and domestic ones fell 0.3 percent. “The recovery of domestic demand rests on poorly diversified pillars, with construction driving investment and imported goods explaining the dynamism of consumption, while domestic machinery and spending on domestic goods remain lagging.

“Going forward, the key will be whether this strength manages to transmit to productive investment and domestic consumption; if it does not, growth will remain exposed to exchange-rate shocks and to a slowdown in external demand, a relevant risk for gross domestic product in the second half of 2026,” explained Gerónimo Ugarte, chief economist at Valmex.

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