The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is considering raising its oil production in August for the fifth consecutive month, a decision that will be debated tomorrow, Sunday, amid expectations of market normalization after the partial unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.

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The decision must be adopted in a teleconference by the sector ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, as reported by the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna.

These are seven of the 21 ‘petro-states’ in the alliance that have been gradually returning to the market for more than a year a portion of the barrels they withdrew in 2023.

OPEC+ Output Hikes Remain a Drop in the Ocean

OPEC+ is expected to approve another 188,000 barrels per day production increase for August as Gulf exports gradually recover. However, compared with the massive supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, these… pic.twitter.com/1xFyY0Y6uM

— Conti 2023 (@Mouton2023) July 3, 2026

On the negotiating table is a moderate increase in their joint pumping similar to that of previous months, of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The group resumed its monthly production increases in April after a three-month pause, but those agreed upon since then have de facto only been on paper, as they were largely nullified by the drastic and involuntary drop in production from several members, mainly Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, due to the conflict in the Middle East.

According to estimates published by OPEC, the cumulative loss was close to 10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April, not counting the reduction in Russian extractions caused by Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran that extends the current ceasefire in the Iran war while negotiations for a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict continue, “black gold” prices have returned to pre-war levels.

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