Bullets:

Bullets:

The US is attracting millions fewer international travelers, compared to forecasts from just two years ago.

Foreign travel to the United States plunged in 2025, to levels last seen in 2012.

The hospitality industry expected a boom in 2026, with 11 cities hosting World Cup events, and huge per-person tourist spend.

But most host cities in the United States continue to show declines from even last-year’s dismal numbers.

China has probably already surpassed the US as the number one global tourist destination, with leisure and business travel up sharply, along with spending.

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Report:

Good morning.

This is from 2024, and is a forecast from the International Trade Administration, part of the US Department of Commerce. The National Travel and Tourism Office is projecting international visits to the US, for 2025. They called for an increase of 6.5% from the 2024 numbers; “The United States set to welcome 77 million international visitors” the next year, 2025. They expected a full recovery – a return to pre-COVID levels of international travel to the United States – by this year, 2026.

For 2027, the NTTO projected 90 million international visits, with spending over $279 billion, or over $3000 per person.

The full-year 2025 numbers came in, but went in the other direction. The number of international visitors was supposed to increase by over 4 million, but they dropped by over four million instead. 2025 was the first year the number of arrivals to the US dropped since the pandemic ended.

But worldwide, the travel industry is growing, just not back and forth to the United States. The drop in US tourism for 2025 was even sharper than the decline during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, which was global. It was the worst one-year decline in twenty years, and the international tourism industry in the United States is back to the same levels as in 2012:

Here are the biggest drops in absolute numbers, by country. Canadian visits to the US dropped by over 4 million, from 2024 to 2025. Big declines from Western Europe: Germany and Denmark down by double-digit percentages; tourists from dropped by 116,000:

There is even further deterioration in 2026, and the numbers may be even worse than the official reads. This is from the University of Toronto, and is a study of cell phone activity by Canadian users in the United States. They found a 42% year-on-year decline in Canadian visits, which is far higher than the 25% estimate that was based on the number of border crossings. They conclude there that the border crossing data are failing to account for the real decline in Canadian business travel, and when the Canadians do cross over, they’re visiting fewer places, staying for less time, and certainly spending less money.

Here are the city-level data for Canadian cell phone use, over a two-year period. Four of the top seven are Florida, with over 50% drops. Besides serving as major tourist attractions, Orlando and Miami are also convention and trade show cities. We can say the same of Las Vegas and New York, and Canadians’ cell phone usage there is also down by over half. If they’re going at all, they’re spending a lot less time there.

We’re now deep into 2026; the Commerce Department two years ago projected 85 million foreign tourists for this year, with over 42 million flying in from abroad. North America is also hosting the World Cup, and industry insiders knew there would be a boom, right now, in the inbound travel numbers, who are also spending a lot of money. Eleven American cities are hosting games, and expected visitors to spend $5,000 each. But those forecasts are falling apart too. 80% of hotels report that actual reservations are far below what they planned for.

The boom in travel from Europe just never came. In May, European visits to the US dropped 7% over 2025, and remember that 2025 was lousy. And for June and July, flights from Europe to the World Cup cities are down, even compared to years there are no World Cup games to watch. Flights to New York from Europe are down over 15%. That is a disaster for hotels in New York; the trade association there cut their estimates for the World Cup revenues by 60%. New York area hotels expected revenues of $150 million for the World Cup; now they’re hoping for $60 million.

Hotel bookings for the World Cup, overall, are up 0.5% year-over-year, but that is largely because of big spikes in demand for the games in Mexico City and Monterrey.

Families and business people still are traveling. There are just far fewer going to the United States. This is from the World Travel and Tourism Council, and they forecast that China will replace the United States as the top international destination, and probably already did. 68 million foreign travelers came to China in 2025, which is the same as the United States for last year. Visits to China were up over 15% year over year; travel spending by those travelers is also rising, up over 10%.

This is a business channel, and we wanted to look at that data point, because we think there is a lot there, under the surface. China ranked second worldwide for business travel spending, at $192 billion. And we’re back to the Purchasing Power Parity problem; a travel dollar goes a lot farther in China than almost anywhere else, and that is a major advantage for China’s industrial sectors too.

Here’s what we mean. In July my group will be at the International Building Show in Guangzhou. It runs from 8 through 11 July, and it’s at the Canton Fair complex. I go to a lot of these shows, and look for the same thing, every time. I want a hotel that is in short walking distance of that building. I want breakfast included, and I need a gym.

These hotels are within a 10-minute walk, and you can see the prices. And the brands. Four and five stars, most of them. I can walk a few more minutes and get a nice place for around $80 per night, and this is during one of the busiest trade shows in the world for the building industry.

There is a comparable event in New York City, in October. The Greenbuild International Conference is at the Javits Center, and let’s pretend I want to go there. I still want eggs in the morning and heavy exercise at night, and I want to walk to the show instead of fighting for a cab. And we need to take the prices from Guangzhou and multiply by five to get the same room, nearby the same industry event:

What’s that mean? It means that if your company is in South America or in Europe or in Africa, and obviously anywhere in Asia, you can send five times as many people to Guangzhou for the same money compared to the show in New York.

Or, more likely, you’ll send the same group, but will spend a lot more time and money at the factories in Guangdong that you just met at the show in Guangzhou.

Be good.

Resources and links:

NTTO Forecast of International Visitation to the United States
https://www.trade.gov/feature-article/ntto-forecast-international-visitation-united-states

Visitors to US dropped by millions last year in biggest decline since Covid-19 pandemic
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/us-tourism-decline-usa-international-visitors-b2984288.html

U.S. Tourism Takes Massive Hit with 4 Million Fewer International Visitors Last Year: Report
https://people.com/u-s-tourism-takes-massive-hit-with-4-million-fewer-international-visitors-last-year-report-11985347

Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis

US lost 4 million tourists in 2025 — and the World Cup won’t fix it
https://boingboing.net/2026/05/25/us-lost-4-million-tourists-in-2025-and-the-world-cup-wont-fix-it.html

U.S. Inbound Tourism Drops 14% in April, Erasing Two Months of Gains
https://skift.com/2026/05/11/us-inbound-international-tourism-april/

European Visitors To U.S. Dropped 7% In May—As Tourism Industry Seeks World Cup Turnaround
https://www.travelpirates.com/captains-log/us-tourism-drops-14-percent-summer-2026

Economic Impact of China’s Travel and Tourism
https://researchhub.wttc.org/product/factsheet-china-travel-tourism-economic-impact

China on track to surpass US as world’s leading travel and tourism economy
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/china-tourism-economy-overtake-united-states-b2990253.html

Pricey World Cup keeps fans away, hits US hotels, airlines
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/pricey-world-cup-keeps-fans-away-hits-us-hotels-airlines-2026-06-11/

America’s tourism slump will outlast the World Cup
https://unherd.com/newsroom/americas-tourism-slump-will-outlast-the-world-cup/

How much has Canadian travel to U.S. cities declined?
https://mappingtariffs.org/canada-us-visits

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