Seemingly oblivious to reality, Keir Starmer has said he will fight against Andy Burnham in a leadership challenge. We say ‘oblivious’, because Starmer is one of the most unpopular PMs in history, and Burnham just smashed Reform in a by-election despite Farage’s party leading the polls for over a year.

Should Starmer defend himself, we now know roughly what he has planned:

NEW: A leaked No 10 document shows how Keir Starmer plans to stop Andy Burnham becoming PM

“Andy Burnham hasn’t faced any real scrutiny yet. A true contest would likely see his support wane”

[@Guardian] pic.twitter.com/Oq5TmYZp1E

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 19, 2026

Starmer — Bring down Burnham

Starmer’s strategy begins like this:

A potential leadership contest has not even begun:

• AB hasn’t faced any real scrutiny yet. A true contest would expose him to questions that he hasn’t ever before had to answer and likely see his support wane as a result.

To be fair, it is true Burnham hasn’t been properly scrutinised. It’s also true that it’s unclear what his plan for government is, as we’ve covered:

• Burnham is silent on wealth taxes — not a promising sign from potential PM.
• Shapeshifting Burnham ditches trans rights to panic-grab Reform votes.
• Burnham slammed for saying he won’t renationalise Thames Water.
• Green candidate calls out genocide as Burnham sits on fence.
• Andy U-Turnham has already abandoned the Waspi women.

He has given some idea of what the plan is post-by-election, but we’re going to need more detail than this, and we won’t get that in advance if Labour coronates him:

WATCH: Andy Burnham outlines his vision for Britain during his Makerfield victory rally:

– End “trickle-down” economics
– End the “unfair” immigration system
– Push reindustrialisation
– Public procurement to use British business
– Work placements for all 16–18-year-olds pic.twitter.com/awSZvYgoaa

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 19, 2026

The Starmer plan continues:

The trajectory for AB has not been positive

• Exposure in recent weeks has led to a decline in public support for AB across the board. His favourability has dropped -6ppts since May and those with an unfavourable opinion have increased by +9ppts (Chart 1).
• Even amongst those saying they would vote for AB in published member polls, a significant proportion of members are still unsure of their vote or genuinely undecided.

This is fair enough, but do they really think that Starmer will have a ‘positive trajectory’ in a leadership contest?

He won the 2020 leadership election on the back of 10 left-leaning pledges that he later unceremoniously abandoned. This means no matter what he promises this time around, no one will believe him.

Clutching at polls

The plan continued:

The membership can change their views

• The membership has shown it is capable of significant volatility in its judgements on prospective candidates. For example, support for KS in a head-to-head with WS shifted dramatically over the course of just a few months – going from a dead heat in November 2025 to a 34-point KS lead in May (Survation).

Members give KS personal credit as PM and rate Labour’s time in office positively:

• 80% of the membership say Labour has done a good job in govt.
• 66% believe KS has done a good job as Prime Minister.
• This positivity extends across most areas of policy, with at least 55% saying the government have done well in each area polled, rising as high as 87% when it comes to the NHS and 91% on workers’ rights.

The Labour membership loved Jeremy Corbyn, but the faction who maneuvered Starmer into power said that didn’t matter. According to them, the membership are inconsequential; all that matters is what the general public thinks. Now, they’re urging MPs to ignore the public and to listen to members.

It’s almost as if they don’t believe in anything, and will literally say anything to get their own way.

The strategy also highlights a graph which shows Burnham’s favourability dropped during the Makerfield by-election:

Chart 1: IPSOS, 5-9 June 2026, Red line unfavourable; Green line favourable

Andy Burnham: April 2024 – June 2026

33% Unfavourable
26% Favourable

Again, this is fair enough, but do you know what will improve his favourability? Pummelling the much-loathed Starmer in a leadership contest.

It’s over

The fact that this secret plan leaked shows even Starmer’s top team is trying to bring him down.

Now, Starmer does at last seem to be wrestling with reality:

BREAKING: Keir Starmer is now considering resigning after Cabinet Ministers called for him to step down

He’ll come to a decision with his wife and family over the weekend

[@thetimes]

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 19, 2026

Team Starmer aren’t wrong to say Burnham is untested, anyway. We really have no idea what he’s got planned as prime minister. You know, besides keeping up the attacks on sick and disabled people, maintaining a Reform-like stance on migration, and refusing to acknowledge the genocide.

Featured image via The Canary

By Willem Moore

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