Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz surged to 25 ship crossings on Thursday, more than five times the daily average recorded during the first ten days of June, coinciding with the entry into force of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that reactivates the maritime passage, according to data from maritime intelligence firms AXSMarine and Kpler.
AXSMarine reported that the 25 transits represent a significant increase, though still well below the pre-war average of approximately 110 daily crossings before the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran led to the strait’s blockade.
Since early March, AIS data has verified 846 individual crossings of bulk carriers, oil tankers, gas carriers, and container ships, averaging 7.6 daily crossings, though many vessels sailed with tracking systems turned off to avoid identification. Kpler confirmed the 25 crossings, noting that traffic was evenly distributed in both directions, with most ships following established Iranian routes.
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The increase occurred after the U.S.-Iran memorandum was signed, but before scheduled talks in Switzerland were canceled, adding uncertainty to the reopening timeline. Kpler noted that while the increase points to improved operational conditions, implementation details remain unresolved and the persistence of unauthorized crossings indicates a high degree of caution among ship operators.
The IRGC reportedly warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until two conditions are met: “Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon” and the “withdrawal of American forces from the Persian Gulf and the region.”
It ordered ships to stay away, warning that "any vessel that…
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The memorandum stipulates the immediate reopening of the strait, through which 20% of global oil passes, and an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, but Israel has not complied with these terms
The agreement gives the U.S. and Iran 60 days to finalize a definitive peace deal covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and the release of billions in frozen Iranian funds.
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