The Makerfield by-election is arguably the most important in UK history. If Andy Burnham wins, he’ll no doubt go on to replace Keir Starmer as PM. And if Stats for Lefties is correct, there’s little doubt left at this point:
FINAL ESTIMATE | Makerfield by-election:
Lab: 47% (+1)
Ref: 39% (+8)
Res: 7% (+7)
Labour HOLD (3% swing to Reform)
+/- vs GE2024 pic.twitter.com/RVQLUunQ2G
— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) June 17, 2026
Burnham’s chances
Should the estimate prove accurate, there’ll be several important factors to bear in mind:
- Reform did better in this by-election than the 2024 general election despite the ‘Burnham bounce’.
- Reform did worse than the recent local elections; no doubt because of the Burnham bounce.
- Restore lowered Reform’s vote, but Labour would have won anyway.
- The Greens couldn’t repeat their Gorton & Denton success, but they still beat the Tories and Lib Dems.
In this scenario, Keir Starmer would basically have no argument for remaining in position. Under his watch, Reform UK has led Labour in the polls since April 2025, but Burnham will have shown Farage’s party is beatable with the right candidate.
Of course, this is just one estimate. But Stats has predicted winners before:
Final estimate for Gorton and Denton:
Grn: 31% (+18)
Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024) pic.twitter.com/xO5zyhef02
— Stats for Lefties
This was the actual result:
Con: 1.9% (-6.0)
Lib: 1.8% (-2.0)
Green GAIN from Labour (26.5% swing) pic.twitter.com/s49MGW8Uom
— Stats for Lefties
As you can see, Stats got Reform and Labour roughly right but underestimated how well the Greens would do. This was understandable, because the polls all failed to capture how much the Greens had resonated with voters. And that was understandable too, because the Green Party under Zack Polanski is essentially a new force in British politics.
What happens next?
Despite the Greens’ success in Gorton, the party has seen their polling fall below Labour’s again — likely because they opted to run a diminished campaign in the Makerfield by-election. As Politico’s Poll of Polls shows:
The Greens no doubt hope to catch up again in the Greater Manchester Mayoral Race (should Burnham become an MP). But as other polling shows, having Burnham as PM will present new challenges:
POLL | GE2029 with Burnham as PM:
Via @BMGResearch, 26-28 May
—
(+/- vs standard voting intention) pic.twitter.com/kQx0DY7u9e— Stats for Lefties
For Burnham to maintain a lead over the Greens, he’ll have to show he can deliver where Starmer did not. The signs, however, are pointing to him being Starmer 2.0:
- Burnham ‘to support’ Mahmood’s racist immigration changes.
- Burnham is silent on wealth taxes – not a promising sign from potential PM.
- Andy Burnham’s role with Iain Duncan Smith’s think tank just shows he’s more of the same.
- Burnham WON’T back proportional representation this parliament.
- Shapeshifting Burnham ditches trans rights to panic-grab Reform votes.
- Burnham slammed for saying he won’t renationalise Thames Water.
- Burnham calls for ‘safe routes’ then agrees with Farage in muddled interview.
- Green candidate calls out genocide as Burnham sits on fence.
- Andy U-Turnham has already abandoned the Waspi women.
Featured image via the Canary
By Willem Moore
From Canary via This RSS Feed.