‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham could be the next prime minister. Following May’s local election disaster for Labour, the Greater Manchester mayor is on track to win the Makerfield byelection, triggered specifically to open the way for him to re-enter parliament and challenge the terminally-disliked Keir Starmer for the top job.

The latest Makerfield polling from Opinium predicts a narrow victory for Burnham on 46%, with Reform UK at his heels on 41%, Restore Britain on 7% and the Tories, Greens and Lib Dems on 3%, 2% and 1% respectively. A new poll from Convergence, however, gives Burnham a much bigger 12-point lead over Reform’s Robert Kenyon, with Labour polling at 49% and Reform at 37%.

With Makerfield under his belt, Labour’s most popular politician will be well-positioned to enter the third party leadership contest of his career – and, if polls are correct, emerge victorious for the first time. But is Burnham the answer to Labour’s woes and a potential ally of the left, or is he just another centrist chameleon who will go Reform-lite as soon as he’s handed the keys to Downing Street?

Burnham – who held ministerial offices under both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, as well as serving in Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinets – has at least some soft-left credentials.

As Brown’s culture secretary in 2009, he was heckled at an anniversary event of the Hillsborough disaster, which led to him persuading the government to launch a second inquiry into the fatal crush. He received a Commons ovation in 2016 after condemning South Yorkshire police as “rotten to the core” in the wake of the inquest verdict which found that the 96 victims of the disaster had been unlawfully killed, as well as for blasting the cover-up as “advanced in the committee rooms of this House and in the press rooms of 10 Downing Street”.

The same year, as Corbyn’s shadow home secretary, Burnham called for the government’s “toxic” Prevent strategy to be scrapped, dubbing the duty to report signs of radicalisation “today’s equivalent of internment in Northern Ireland”.

In positioning himself as a champion of the north against Westminster cronyism, Burnham has created a great deal of goodwill among voters above the M25. First elected as mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, he has since been reelected twice, each time with over 60% of the vote. His successes in the role include popular, common-sense policies such as the £2 cap on bus fares, which he could roll out nationwide if elected Labour leader, and creating the integrated and publicly-controlled Bee Network for buses, trams and cycling routes.

During the pandemic, Burnham blasted Boris Johnson’s government for inadequate support for northern communities, ultimately securing more funding for the region and earning himself the Game of Thrones epithet ‘King of the North’. (Burnham’s most high-profile mayoral election pledge, meanwhile – to end rough sleeping by 2020 – proved a much tougher ask.)

In terms of his allies, Burnham has a close relationship with energy secretary Ed Miliband – perhaps the most leftwing member of Starmer’s frontbench – who is said to be advising Burnham on fiscal policy (and teeing himself up as future chancellor). However, Burnham is out of step with Miliband on net zero, touting a newly “open mind” on further drilling for North Sea oil and gas.

Since announcing his leadership bid, Burnham has lashed out at “40 years of trickle-down economics”, promising to end privatisation of essential services, austerity and deregulation.

At the heart of Burnham’s agenda – should he become prime minister – is bringing water and energy back into public hands, his allies briefed over the weekend. “When Andy says he wants the public to have control over ‘the essentials of life’, we should believe him. He is completely serious,” a Burnham source said. But his commitment to sticking with Labour’s fiscal rules could result in the same U-turns and inertia on austerity apparent in Starmer’s deeply disliked premiership.

The run-up to the Makerfield byelection has been characterised by clearly right-leaning policy positions from the Burnham camp, particularly the understanding that he will back home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s draconian immigration reforms, which include an end to permanent refugee status. This announcement drew sharp criticism from Diane Abbott, the independent MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington, who posted on X: “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Perhaps in response to being called “open-borders Andy” by Reform UK, Burnham has also rolled back on his previous calls to scrap the ‘no recourse to public funds’ restriction on people moving to the UK getting benefits or public housing before they are granted settled status – a key driver of homelessness. Last week, Burnham said Britain needs to make “greater use” of immigration detention centres, something rights groups have long warned comes with a high human and financial cost.

Josh Simons – the former MP for Makerfield who stood down for Burnham’s run – is also a potential cause for concern among leftwing voters. Simons, who was director of rightwing thinktank Labour Together when it paid a US firm to spy on and smear journalists, is understood to be working on policy for Burnham and is tipped to be part of his future cabinet.

Burnham’s senior advisors have also lobbied Mahmood – who has said her vision for the UK criminal justice system is an AI-powered panopticon – to consider the role of chancellor, it was reported over the weekend.

During the Makerfield campaign, Burnham has said he believes politics “needs less division and less factionalism”, and that some leftwingers such as Faiza Shaheen and Jamie Driscoll should never have been kicked out of the Labour party. He has drawn the line at extending the same courtesy to Corbyn, however.

Burnham, along with London mayor Sadiq Khan and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, broke ranks with the Westminster leadership to call for a ceasefire in Gaza in late October 2023. But earlier this month, he declined to call Israel’s ongoing military assault on Gaza a genocide – despite it being declared one by the world-leading International Association of Genocide Scholars.

Burnham told the Guardian: “I do have concerns about the disproportionate nature of what has happened in terms of the destruction, and there has to be a full process of investigation and accountability.” That full process of investigation and accountability seems unlikely, however, to take into account the UK government’s complicity in Israel’s genocide. Corbyn wrote to Burnham last month, asking whether, as prime minister, his government would establish a full, independent public inquiry into Britain’s role in Israeli operations in Gaza, end all military cooperation with and impose sanctions on Israel. Burnham has not, to date, responded.

Despite a visit to the occupied West Bank with Labour Friends of Palestine in 2012, Burnham has been a member of Labour Friends of Israel since 2015, and said during his leadership campaign in the same year that his first state visit would be to Israel. He has also dismissed the peaceful global Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign as “spiteful”.

Burnham’s record on foreign policy also bears the scar of his decision to vote for the Iraq war – and twice against an inquiry – something that came under scrutiny in 2015, when he said “there wasn’t an easy answer” to whether the UK should illegally invade a sovereign country.

Starmer’s failure to deliver change after 14 years of Tory austerity, coupled with authoritarian crackdowns on free speech and assembly and complicity in the genocide in Gaza, has turned the Labour brand toxic for many progressive voters. If Burnham doesn’t prove himself to be materially different, those voters are unlikely to return.

From Novara Media via This RSS Feed.