Two vastly different economic, political, and social agendas will be on the ballot on June 21 in the presidential run-off in Colombia, Latin America’s fourth-largest economy. Following a highly polarizing election campaign, the far-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, and the left candidate of the ruling Historic Pact party, Iván Cepeda, will be the visible faces of two clearly opposing visions for the country.

According to preliminary data from Colombia’s Registrar General’s Office – which is neither official nor binding – De la Espriella reportedly took first place with 43.74% of the vote, followed by Cepeda with 40.9%. Far behind is Paloma Valencia, ally of far-right Álvaro Uribe of the Democratic Center party, with just 7%.

The clear surprise has been De la Espriella’s meteoric rise; most polls did not predict that he would finish first in the first round or secure more than 40% of the vote. Clearly, there was a massive shift of votes from Valencia to De la Espriella, perhaps due to the clear impossibility of the former advancing to the runoff, which demonstrates a clear pragmatic outlook among Colombian right-wing voters.

Controversy over exit polls

And while it is now clear that the two candidates advancing to the runoff are Cepeda and De la Espriella, the exact percentages they will carry into June 21 are still unknown.

This point has been highlighted by current President Gustavo Petro, who has cast doubt on the reliability of the preliminary results: “The so-called broadcast count is not legally binding; its data is not public record. As president, I do not accept the results of the preliminary count by the Bautista brothers’ private firm, because while the algorithms of the counting and tabulation software should have remained unchanged, they were altered three times in the last week and added 800,000 more voter IDs of people who are not in the official census.”

“The polling stations that have already been challenged show that hundreds of thousands of votes were added without any voters having cast them. Therefore, and in accordance with the law, the binding results that the president will consider and accept are those of the vote-counting commissions led by the judges of the Republic,” Petro wrote on X.

“Irregularities and foreign interference”: Cepeda’s statements

The numbers from the preliminary count was also rejected by Cepeda, who stated that there is “a discrepancy” between the preliminary results and the voter registry, as the former mentions “885,000 votes from people who are not registered.” In this regard, he affirmed that the Historic Pact remains “the main political force in Colombia,” despite the “miscounted” votes. Until official election results are released, Cepeda said he would not make any further statements regarding the results.

What Cepeda did assert is that there were certain irregularities in the elections, such as the fact that hundreds of thousands of Colombians were unable to vote, or that his candidacy was singled out and challenged.

But perhaps the most serious accusation is the one made by Cepeda regarding alleged foreign interference in the elections: “Foreign authorities and governments have meddled in our elections, as was the case with the President [of Ecuador], Mr. [Daniel] Noboa, who acted in concert and colluded with De la Espriella… This is nothing less than a vulgar, open, and brazen intervention in our electoral process, especially in the south of the country [on the border with Ecuador], where we have a significant vote.”

A few hours before the elections, Noboa and De la Espriella released a video call in which they pledged to work together. Additionally, the right-wing Ecuadorian president announced the elimination of 100% tariffs on Colombia – an economic and political conflict that has been dragging on with Petro’s government for months and has caused significant economic losses to the border region of both countries.

Read more: Crisis in the Andes: Ecuador and Colombia recall ambassadors and trade insults

Petro, for his part, claimed at the time that Noboa’s measure was coordinated with former President Uribe and was intended to influence public sentiment in favor of a right-wing vote. Furthermore, Petro said that Noboa did not eliminate the tariffs out of “goodwill,” but because the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) demanded it.

Regarding the upcoming runoff election, Cepeda said: “We are going to win in the runoff. Let there be no doubt about it. Starting tonight, we will direct all our efforts toward mobilizing and defeating all the forces necessary to defeat Mr. Abelardo de la Espriella.”

“Who is De la Espriella? A lawyer for paramilitaries … a lawyer for drug traffickers and swindlers, whom he has swindled. He is a swindler of swindlers, a swindler of drug traffickers. Mr. De la Espriella represents fascism, mafia-style fascism; let that be clear … Plutocracy and corruption: that is what he represents,” said Cepeda, calling on Colombia to close ranks against the far-right candidate.

Neoliberalism and alliances with the international and national right: De la Espriella’s statements

For his part, De la Espriella, nicknamed “El Tigre,” posted on X about the election results, stating that he is willing to join forces with whoever it takes to defeat Cepeda: “We are DEFENDERS OF THE HOMELAND, a popular movement whose mission is to continue winning hearts across the nation. Freedom and democracy are at stake. The only enemy is Cepeda, just as we’ve been saying for months.”

These alliances seem to have come about almost automatically. Both Álvaro Uribe and Paloma Valencia have publicly expressed their support for De la Espriella in the runoff election: “Personally, as Paloma Valencia, the woman who wanted to be your president, I announce my support for Dr. Abelardo de la Espriella,” said the former candidate.

For his part, De la Espriella, true to his style of promoting controversy and polarization, has said he will defend the election results by any means at his disposal: “We will not allow them to steal the will of the people by using every form of struggle … We will defend democracy through reason or by force … International community, keep your eyes on Colombia. Petro, the coup plotter, wants to cling to power by disregarding the will of the Colombian people … Let the United States and democratic countries monitor this runoff.”

The far-right candidate also spoke about Cepeda, whom he has called “the incapacitated one” (“el impedido”): “The danger has a name: Iván Cepeda, a bandit allied with narco-terrorists … We must stand united to bring about the miracle that Colombia deserves – a battle we will not lose, for we must defeat Cepeda’s criminal communism.”

Furthermore, De la Espriella advocated for a Colombia that returns to the harshest form of neoliberalism “with the United States as its main ally”.

Explicit support from the international right

Indeed, De la Espriella has found an ally in the regional radical right that has had no qualms about publicly backing the far-right Colombian candidate in the midst of the election campaign, as seen with Daniel Noboa, who congratulated De la Espriella after he advanced to the runoff: “Congratulations, Abelardo de la Espriella, on a great victory! Unfortunately, being a sore loser is contagious … Good luck in the runoff. The Colombian people need real change.”

Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei, also congratulated De la Espriella on his victory. “This result reflects the Colombian people’s yearning for freedom and progress, and an express desire to say ‘enough’ to the failed socialist model that has done so much harm to our region – and to Colombia in particular – over the past four years.”

But support for the Colombian far right extends beyond Latin America. US Congressman Carlos Gimenez said on X: “From the U.S. Congress, I urge the Colombian opposition forces to unite to save democracy. As the representative of the district with the largest Colombian-American population, I am confident that De la Espriella will unite everyone to defeat Petrism!”

In the same vein, US Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar wrote: “The Colombian right has a historic responsibility. The time for unity has come. That is why I ask all decent Colombians to close ranks behind De la Espriella to prevent Colombia from continuing down the path of Petrism and socialism.”

An uncertain future

From this point forward, Colombia will experience one of its most politically polarized periods. The political and economic vision of a welfare state will have to contend with a model of radical neoliberalism that is clearly aligned with Washington and the other radical right-wing governments in South America (such as those in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, and Ecuador) which have achieved significant victories in recent years.

However, during Petro’s administration, Colombia’s progressive and left-wing forces have achieved key legal and political victories, as well as charting their own diplomatic course, even in the face of pressure from Washington and other countries. Hence, the Historic Pact will seek to keep Colombia aligned with the region’s progressive governments, such as those of Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay.

Both candidates aim to radicalize their rhetoric by uniting their forces, although it will likely once again be the political center that determines who will win, as well as the political trend that manages to attract more voters who likely did not turn out to vote on May 31, and in whose hands a significant part of the decision in the runoff election will lie.

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