When a scientist says, “We don’t know yet,” it can sound like a shrug. In reality, it often means the opposite: We are worried enough to be careful. The public can reasonably ask why some climate risks, especially tipping points, don’t arrive with alarm and immediate action. George Monbiot recently voiced a frustration many people feel: Why has the possibility of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shift not prompted a bigger political and media response? Climate scientists are trained to avoid overclaiming and, instead, to communicate what the evidence shows, what it suggests, and what remains unresolved. That approach underpins my team’s recent research on ocean acidification, supported by the Frontiers Planet Prize. In that work, published in Global Change Biology, we found that large parts of the global ocean have already crossed into a “zone of risk” for ecosystem change. That caution can serve to downplay the threat, but the latest research on the AMOC should be understood as a warning sign: The potential outcomes could be even more severe than projected, and the uncertainty around timing and thresholds is not a reason to delay, but an argument for action now. Ocean life depends on AMOC The AMOC is often described as a giant conveyor belt of Atlantic currents. Warm, salty surface waters flow north from the tropics to the subpolar North Atlantic. On its way, the water releases heat to the atmosphere, so that by the time it reaches the subpolar region, it has cooled and become…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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