As the US and Iran inch towards an agreement to end US president Donald Trump’s illegal war, tit-for-tat strikes continued this weekend. In the third major violation of the temporary ceasefire in place since April, the US struck Iranian sites, with Tehran taking aim at a US base in Kuwait this morning.
While very real, these displays of strength remain pretty constrained, as both sides hammer out the details of a new deal – one that would see a fresh 60-day ceasefire and concessions from both sides. Good news for the world at large, which could see the flow of oil, fertilizer and other essential items eventually resume through the strait of Hormuz.
Bad news for Israel though, a state allergic to peace in the region. Which is why it’s pulling out some old tricks to scupper it. It begs the question: is there any cost this so-called ally won’t demand of the rest of us to maintain its regional free-hand? Or could the price of peace be Israel itself?
We know a memorandum of understanding exists that, if agreed by Tehran and Washington, would lead to a 60-day ceasefire in Donald Trump’s (highly illegal) Iran war, and potentially a permanent peace. We also know that it’s now being carefully considered by the two countries. And we know that, for Israel, peace is a threat.
It can come as no surprise to anyone that, within hours of being shown a draft of the proposal, Israel’s prime minister was bragging from an illegal settlement about ordering his military to take 70% of Gaza – a good 20% more than the temporary control assigned by the Gaza ceasefire. No surprise, either, that in the days that followed, Israel’s army began further invading Lebanon. Once again, well beyond the so-called yellow line agreed with the Lebanese government in a ceasefire all but imposed on Israel just weeks ago.
As of Sunday night, Israel occupied almost one fifth of Lebanon, more than it has in a quarter of a century. While hundreds of villages were forcibly evacuated by the Israeli military in March and April, dozens more are now subject to further evacuation orders. And the capture of Lebanon’s strategic and highly symbolic Beaufort Castle this weekend will both heighten Hezbollah’s response to the incursion, while weakening the ability of the Lebanese government to maintain power as popular support for the militia group grows.
Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is said to be a key Iranian demand in the peace plan. Since that plan doesn’t involve Israel directly, it’s essentially a clause demanding the US check its ally in exchange for a reopening of the strait of Hormuz. And while Trump battles domestically to justify his doolally war to his base, the US military is sneaking around under cover of transponder-darkness, guiding barely a handful of oil-laden ships away from Iranian missiles and to the wider world.
It’s a pretty humiliating moment for the US, a superpower reportedly talked into the war by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and now bearing the economic and political costs of Israel’s ‘allyship’ in entirely new ways. European countries – including our own – have also (with a few exceptions) maintained their ‘allyships’ with Israel, at similar costs. France and Germany have condemned Israel’s renewed invasion of Lebanon this morning, with our own foreign secretary Yvette Cooper weakly calling for the April ceasefire to be respected.
If only ships flowed through Hormuz as smoothly as sweet nothings from our politicians’ mouths. And the willingness of Israel’s allies to be so comprehensively cucked would be coma-inducingly cringe if it weren’t also so tragic.
In the UK, we’ve seen the Labour government’s unwavering alliance to Israel distort some of our most basic liberal values. Thousands of peaceful protestors have been arrested for mere speech after Palestine Action was proscribed under counter-terror law for smashing weapons believed to be intended for a genocide. There has now been an unprecedented trial in which a jury convicted four young people for criminal damage while the court actively prevented it from knowing that terrorist sentencing could be on the cards. Meanwhile, home secretary Shabana Mahmood has today banned two vocal Israel critics – Hasan Piker and Cenk Uygur – from entering the country ahead of a festival appearance later this week.
The economic distortion comes next. Oil prices have soared because of this misguided and meaningless war on Iran. Optimism over a new peace deal has seen economists temper their assessments of a larger economic hit, but that may soon wane if the movement of essential energy doesn’t quickly increase. Likewise, the rise in the cost of fertilizer to farmers will mean price increases in supermarkets, which have already spiraled out of control. And all of that will equate to wider political instability, here in the UK, across Europe and around the world.
Donald Trump has long coveted a Nobel peace prize. He’s unlikely to get one (though stranger things have happened). But perhaps there’s a noble peace price within reach. The cost? Cutting Israel loose.
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