US shoppers have been struggling with the price of groceries for years now, and prices are only set to climb higher in the coming months.

As reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday, a combination of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, his illegal war with Iran, and a potential “super El Niño” weather pattern is projected to lower food supply while increasing food production costs, all of which will mean higher prices at US grocery stores.

According to Bloomberg, weather forecasters are now projecting that an unusually strong El Niño will form in August “that will persist into 2027 and push global average temperatures higher,” potentially causing droughts in nations that grow staple crops such as rice, coffee, and cocoa.

And even without an El Niño, noted Bloomberg, farmers in the US have already endured the warmest-ever start to a planting season, which “prompted some domestic crops to begin blossoming weeks ahead of schedule instead of remaining dormant throughout the winter, leaving them exposed to subsequent frosts.”

Ricky Volpe, agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University, told Bloomberg that 2026 would be a “challenging year” for agriculture, warning that “food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it.”

Unusually warm weather isn’t the only factor pushing up food prices. In a report published earlier this month, The New York Times found that Trump’s tariffs on foreign steel have been pushing up prices of canned foods.

According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the price of canned fruit and vegetables in March posted 5.7% increase from the year before, driven in large part by a tariff-induced rise in tin plate prices.

“Over 80% of the tin plate used in the United States last year was imported, according to Harbor Intelligence, a metals markets analysis firm,” noted the Times. “Tin plate is produced in much lower volumes than the steel used to make cars and buildings, making it a less attractive business for large steel companies.”

While Trump has tried to brush off the rise in grocery and fuel prices in recent weeks—going so far as to say “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation”—his Republican Party is bracing for potential political consequences.

CNBC reported on Wednesday that the GOP is staring down an inflation “abyss” and fears that Democrats are well poised to at least retake the US House of Representatives.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is retiring at the end of this term, told CNBC that his fellow Republicans have been unwilling to serve as a check on what he described as Trump’s self-destructive tariffs that had hit Americans’ pocketbooks.

“I think tariffs are bad policy,” said Bacon. “Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, they’re the bibles of conservatism, and we have violated those… We should not have rolled over on that here in Congress.”

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