When major new climate change scenarios are released, there’s always strong interest. These scenarios lay out what our future climate will look like, depending on how fast we act to cut emissions.
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As we learned more we removed the outlier scenarios on both ends
The new scenarios have no pathway as optimistic as the lowest emissions scenario from the last round of major climate projections. That scenario—SSP1-1.9—envisaged strong climate action and rapid cuts to emissions, leading to global warming peaking at around 1.5°C.
So basically the latest report says that while we wont hit the worst case scenario we also won’t hit the 1.5°C scenario either and likely end up with between 2-3°C of warming.
Climate change deniers would like to paint this as some great victory. It is better than the worst case scenarios where we do nothing and greatly increase fossil fuel use, but it’s no great cause for celebration.
#doubt
By 2100, carbon dioxide levels would almost triple, to 1,135 parts per million and the world would be around 4.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial period.
This feels to me like a huge underestimation. I think you can easily double that 4.5C. Just my 2 cents…
