The rate of tropical primary forest loss fell sharply in 2025, reversing the record highs of the year before. On paper, it looks like progress. In reality, the dip is likely only a temporary reprieve. The decline followed an exceptional year for wildfires. In 2024, drought helped drive some of the largest fire-related losses on record. In 2025, those climatic pressures eased, and the area lost to fire dropped with them. But the root causes—commodity-driven agricultural expansion, patchy enforcement, and growing climate stress—remain stubbornly in place. A single year’s improvement does not shift that fundamental footing. Tropical primary forest loss by year since 2002 What stands out is the pattern of loss. Forest loss is becoming less predictable, moving in sharper swings tied to weather as much as policy. Fire now accounts for a large share of global tree cover loss, and its behavior tracks temperature and rainfall extremes. When conditions align, losses surge. When they do not, they fall back. But the needle barely moves on the long-term trend: forest loss remains persistently high. Fire does not simply clear land; it hollows out forests in ways that make further loss more likely. Repeated burns thin canopies and dry the forest floor, eroding the processes that allow forests to recover. In parts of the Amazon, clearing has given way to a self-reinforcing cycle of decay, where degradation serves as a precursor to total forest loss. Climate is an increasingly active factor. Forecasts point to a likely El Niño in 2026,…This article was originally published on Mongabay


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