As reported by Stats for Lefties, a polling prediction has Jeremy Corbyn losing his seat to the Green Party:
NEW | MRP projects Corbyn losing to Greens
Greens: 32% (+27)
Your Party: 28% (-21)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindOutNowUK, 7 April
—
(+/- vs GE2024) pic.twitter.com/WHqnqdU2GN— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) April 27, 2026
It’s important to remember that polls aren’t premonitions. At the same time, it’s another sign the Greens have proven more effective at uniting the British left than Your Party.
End of an era for Corbyn?
Looking at the graph in full, you can see how extreme the shift has been since the 2024 election:
However, things aren’t quite as they seem.
One thing to note is that the graph presents it as a shift away from Your Party (YP). This isn’t strictly accurate, however, because YP didn’t exist in 2024 – Corbyn ran as an independent. Technically, then, the graph could actually say the party is set to increase its vote share by 28 percentage points.
There’s something else to consider too. For their voting intention polls, Find Out Now ask which party potential voters favour – not which potential candidates. In the 2024 general election, voters were presented with the independent Jeremy Corbyn as an option; in this poll, they were presented with the option of ‘Your Party’. Electoral Calculus then took this polling and used Census information and other datasets to predict how this national polling might map to Islington North.
All this means the prediction could be way off, because Jeremy Corbyn is a uniquely popular political force, and he’s incredibly well respected in his constituency (hence him winning as an independent in 2024).
Given all this, when Islington voters have the choice of Corbyn or an as-yet-unannounced Green in 2029, we wouldn’t put money on said Green just yet.
Your Party
There is one more thing to mention. Technically, Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a Your Party MP; he’s an independent. We’re not sure why Corbyn hasn’t switched to the party he founded, but unless he does so between now and 2029, he will once again be running as an independent. He certainly could switch, by the way, as Zarah Sultana has already done so.
In other words, Corbyn could potentially end up holding on without YP gaining a seat. It also means YP don’t hold the seat right now.
This is just one of the ways in which YP has proven confusing to potential members, and it’s indicative of why the Green Party has proven more effective at hoovering up left-wing voters.
Musical chairs
In news which is less divisive for the British left, a similar prediction has Starmer losing his seat to the Greens:
Lab: 26% (-23)
Ind: 14% (-5)
Ref: 12% (+6)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindOutNowUK, 7 April
—
(+/- vs GE2024) pic.twitter.com/yTR8JiSsuJ— Stats for Lefties
While we can’t predict the future, the next election will likely be the biggest shakeup in over a century.
Featured image via Barold
By Willem Moore
From Canary via This RSS Feed.