On Wednesday, April 15, USA Today revealed that the Pentagon was secretly preparing a military operation against Cuba. According to two internal sources cited by the newspaper, a simple decision by Trump would be enough to launch the intervention. This information confirms what Trump himself had hinted at in late March during the FII Priority investment forum in Miami, where, in a mocking tone, he had sought to justify the use of military force: “And Cuba is next, by the way, but pretend I didn’t say that.”
This threat of military intervention is designed to extract significant concessions from the Diaz-Canel government, which has already begun negotiations with Washington. But such threats to its nearest neighbors are also part of the broader context of declining U.S. power across the rest of the world, particularly the Middle East. Military exhaustion and the difficulties faced by the United States in Iran could push Trump to seek a symbolic victory against Cuba, which he could present as a success to his base and a reminder of his military supremacy. Such an action, however, could have a high political cost for Trump. But whether or not Trump decides to follow through on his threats, It is the Cuban people who are directly suffering the consequences of the strangulation policy pursued by the United States and its allies.
The Island’s Economy Is Collapsing
The effects of the U.S. blockade on Cuba are impacting all sectors of the economy. One indicator illustrates the scale of the crisis: a significant number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the private sector could go bankrupt due to energy shortages and high fuel costs on the informal market. Yet this is precisely the small business sector, which the Obama and Biden administrations were counting on as a lever for change.
As an act of imperialist violence, the U.S. blockade is also a direct threat to the life and well being of the more than ten million Cubans living on the island. The halt in production, the lack of public transportation, and the shortages of food and medicine, is slowly killing the population in a situation comparable to war. Recent research published in the scientific journal Lancet Global Health estimates that unilateral sanctions cause nearly 560,000 deaths per year worldwide, identifying U.S. sanctions as the deadliest, a toll comparable to that of armed conflicts. In Cuba, the situation has now become a matter of daily survival.
One Cuban journalist is documenting the situation from the island: “People have unfortunately started dying in hospitals simply because we don’t have fuel for ambulances; operations have been canceled; only emergency procedures are being performed.” According to the New York Times , nearly 100,000 people are waiting for surgery, more than 30,000 children are unvaccinated, and approximately 20,000 patients are being deprived of radiotherapy or dialysis. These are the direct and acknowledged consequences of Trump’s policies. An article published in El País on April 12th, under the title “What Will Happen in Cuba,” Cuban writer Leonardo Padura characterizes the current situation as a “polycrisis,” the worst since the 1990s. But there is a fundamental difference compared to the “Special Period,” when, after the collapse of the USSR and the Eastern Bloc, no one gave Cuba much of a chance. In the 1990s, hardship affected the entire population equally, today, sectors of the bureaucracy that run the country continue to enjoy privileges while a growing segment of the population sinks into poverty. This divide highlights the contradictions of a deformed workers’ state. It also makes all the more visible the role that certain influential members of the bureaucratic-military apparatus and the PCC continue to play, including several members associated with the historical leadership of Castroism.
The Strategic Importance of the Negotiations
While Díaz-Canel and the bureaucracy continue to negotiate, offering concessions in the form of market “reforms” that further erode what remains of the nationalized and planned economy, it is the United States that continues to dictate the rules of the game. This dynamic was recently illustrated by the authorization for the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying nearly 700,000 barrels of oil, to pass through Cuba. Through this, Trump attempted to demonstrate that American hegemony, though waning, persists, capable of suffocating or loosening the grip as it sees fit. This is a drop in the ocean compared to the 100,000 barrels per day that Cuba needs just to run its own power plants. AsEl País writes, Cuba is surviving on life support, just enough to keep the negotiations going, but not enough for the people to breathe.
In these negotiations, Díaz-Canel is trying to save face, declaring that the country is prepared for all eventualities, but maintaining that the current form of governance is not up for discussion. He has clearly stated that he intends to “preserve the current structure of government and resist any suggestion of holding multi-party elections.”
Media outlets like the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times have reported since mid-March that these negotiations aim to designate a successor from within the regime in the event of a change of government. The NYT cites Raulito Castro, also known as “el Cangrejo,” while the WSJ, often aligned with the Pentagon’s internal demands, mentions Oscar Pérez-Oliva, Raúl Castro’s great-nephew. Pérez-Oliva is vice president and Minister of Commerce and Foreign Investment, while Pérez-Oliva holds no official position. Raúl Castro’s son, Alejandro Castro Espín, nicknamed “El Tuerto,” a general in the Ministry of the Interior, is also mentioned. These names seek to ensure the continuity of privileges for the economic and military conglomerate (GAESA), which already controls 40% of Cuba’s GDP, under a new facade acceptable to Washington.
The defeat inflicted on the United States in 1961 remains one of the most significant humiliations of American imperialism. Yet, sixty-five years later, Washington has still not given up and subjecting Cuba to the interests of American capital remains the objective.
Originally Published in French on April 24 in Révolution Permanente
The post The U.S. Is Threatening Military Intervention In Cuba appeared first on Left Voice.
From Left Voice via This RSS Feed.