When the Tories started defecting to Reform UK en masse, the reason for them doing so was obvious. Reform were riding high in the polls while the Conservative Party was sinking lower and lower.
Ironically, Reform have dropped in the polls since accepting these Tory defectors. Reform sold themselves as an alternative to the Labour-Conservative duopoly, so opening the party up to ex-Tories made it clear that Farage’s bunch are just another status quo party.
Now, it looks like several of these Tory defectors could eventually lose their seats to their old party:
Chicken Run Alert
https://t.co/H9YAaH9K71
— Kevin Hollinrake MP (@kevinhollinrake) April 19, 2026
For all the MPs who moved for the cynical purpose of saving their skin, this has got to burn.
Things can only get beta – for Reform, anyway
The above is from the website UK Polling Report. The site describes itself as being in the ‘beta’ stage, which implies it’s available to the public but still undergoing testing.
Looking at the front page, this is their polling prediction for how many seats each party would win should an election happen today:
We’re highlighting this to note their model is producing very different results to some pollsters:
POLL | Reform lead by 6pts
Ref: 25% (-3)
Con: 19% (+2)
Lab: 19% (-2)
Grn: 17% (=)
Lib: 14% (+5)
Res: 3% (new)
– Seats –
SNP: 47
Plaid: 8
Poll: @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 9-15 Apr (+/- vs 11 Mar) pic.twitter.com/iOenwmYCvo
— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) April 17, 2026
Res: 4% (=)
YP: 0% (-1)
— Seats —
Poll: @YouGov, 12-13 Apr (+/- vs 7 Apr) pic.twitter.com/m0PQxoBh26
— Stats for Lefties
This variation is to be expected, of course; we’re just highlighting that you shouldn’t take UK Polling Report’s predictions as gospel. You should, however, find some amusement when you look at the predictions for the Tory defectors.
We’ve covered Robert Jenrick already; next is Suella Braverman:
Reform’s Danny Kruger:
Sadly, however, Andrew Rosindell is projected to keep his seat (boo):
The more things change
Saying all this, there’s obviously no reason to celebrate the Tories getting back into the seats they lost to Reform.
It’s not like there’s any real difference between the two parties; if there was, we wouldn’t have seen so many defections.
And let’s be real – the only reason the defections dried up was because Reform’s polling went South.
It’s good Reform are failing to hold on to their lead, but it won’t mean much if their loss is the Tories’ gain.
Featured image via UK Polling Report
By Willem Moore
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