Weeks into a controversy egged on by the centrist think tank Third Way regarding Democratic US Senate candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed’s decision to campaign with an outspoken anti-Israel commentator, a new poll out Wednesday revealed that despite the best efforts of the explicitly anti-left group and El-Sayed’s opponents, the three candidates are in a dead heat with four months to go until Michigan’s primary.

The Data for Progress poll, conducted on behalf of Zeteo News and Drop Site News, found that US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) was in the lead with 23%, but state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-8) and El-Sayed were not far behind, with 22% each. A third of voters were undecided, potentially leaving many open to learning more about the three candidates ahead of the August 4 primary.

With Israel and Palestine already a central theme in the primary due the uproar over El-Sayed’s decision to campaign with Twitch streamer and commentator Hasan Piker, voters were asked about their views on Piker as well as Stevens’ and McMorrow’s ties to the pro-Israel lobby, and signaled that the latter two candidates may have more to explain than El-Sayed.

“Michigan primary voters appear significantly more concerned about the influence of [the American Israel Public Affairs Committee], America’s top pro-Israel lobby,” wrote Andrew Perez at Zeteo. “Sixty-four percent said they are less likely to support a Senate candidate who receives donations from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups, while 10% said they are more likely.”

Stevens received $340,000 in direct campaign contributions from AIPAC’s political action committee last year before she launched her Senate campaign, and she taped a promotional video for the powerful group last month.

McMorrow has positioned herself as a middle ground between Stevens and El-Sayed, a vehement supporter of Palestinian rights, and has spoken out against Israel’s US-backed assault on Gaza. The war, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians, has been called a genocide by leading human rights groups and Holocaust scholars, but McMorrow has not used that word to describe the attacks and has complained that those who urge politicians to do so are subjecting them to a “purity test.”

McMorrow reportedly drafted a position paper for AIPAC and attended an invite-only event hosted by the group last year, featuring a columnist who publicly questioned whether Israel was imposing a starvation policy in Gaza.

Michigan primary voters’ views on AIPAC mirror those of the larger electorate, according to one poll from last October by Upswing Strategies, which found that nearly half of voters in competitive districts said they “could never support” a candidate funded by AIPAC or the pro-Israel lobby.

The Data for Progress poll also found that 62% of voters agreed with the statement, “If a candidate is not willing to stand up to AIPAC, I am less likely to trust them to stand up for Michiganders on other issues.”

The poll was taken between April 2-8, with 515 people surveyed around the time that El-Sayed was appearing with Piker at rallies at the University of Michigan and Michigan State University.

Stevens and McMorrow both took aim at El-Sayed for associating with Piker, who once said the US “deserved” the September 11 attacks—a remark he later apologized for—and has said the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack was a “direct consequence” of US and Israeli actions. Stevens condemned El-Sayed for “choosing to campaign with someone who has a history of antisemitic rhetoric,” while McMorrow compared Piker to far-right, white nationalist streamer Nick Fuentes. Piker and El-Sayed have spoken out against antisemitism and emphasized the difference between opposition to the Israeli government and bias against Jewish people.

Despite the focus on Piker in recent weeks, the poll found that the vast majority of Michigan primary voters didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion about his involvement in El-Sayed’s rallies. Thirteen percent of respondents had a favorable view of him while 7% viewed him negatively.

Data for Progress gave respondents some context about Piker, highlighting his past remarks and noting he’s been accused of antisemitism as well as mentioning El-Sayed’s view that “criticism of Israel should not be confused with antisemitism.” With the background information, 40% of respondents said they approved of El-Sayed campaigning with Piker, 30% said they disapproved, and 30% said they weren’t sure.

Previous polls have found larger gaps between the three candidates; a poll by Upswing Research found in early March that 27% of voters backed Stevens, 25% supported McMorrow, and 23% supported El-Sayed.

While Third Way has cast the primary election as a referendum on a popular livestreamer in recent weeks, Data for Progress executive director Ryan O’Donnell said the poll offered clarity on the other issues that matter to Michigan voters, including expanding Medicare to the entire US population and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement—both proposals El-Sayed strongly supports.

The Data for Progress poll was released as progressive organization Our Revolution announced its endorsement of El-Sayed.

“He is running on a bold vision beyond universal healthcare, from taking on corporate greed to ending big money in politics to advancing a more just and humane future for all,” said Our Revolution. “This is a people-powered campaign—and a chance to build a government that truly works for working families.”

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