Summer weather is arriving earlier, lasting longer and packing more heat than it used to—and it’s happening faster than scientists had previously measured. A new study by UBC researchers has found that between 1990 and 2023, the average summer between the tropics and the polar circles grew about six days longer per decade. That’s up from roughly four days per decade found in past research investigations up until the early 2010s.
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WHICH MEANS THAT THE MODELS ARE MIS-REPRESENTING OUR FUTURE.
idiotic…
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798
We’re currently at a WAAAY higher equilibrium-temperature, & when we stop ignoring methane, but include it, at the 11.8y mean-lifespan it has ( multiply methane by about 140, & then add it as CO2-equivalent, & THEN you see the REAL current-forcing we’re looking at! ), then we’re actually looking-at about +9C, right now, equilibrium-temperature.
“consensus” THAT ISN’T FUCKING FALSIFIABLE, BECAUSE IT IS “BELIEVED-IN” ISN’T SCIENCE.
The warming-SPEED graph looks like a bell-curve:
in the 1820’s, there wasn’t any speed: our climate was remaining there.
Now, however, we’re in the increasing-speed portion of the warming-speed graph: the left side of the bell-curve ( assuming the future is off to the right )
Which means, that the warming-to-date quite possibly would be equalled by the SAME amount of warming from today-on, were we to suddenly/magically begin dropping at the speed we’re currently rising: the effects won’t just vanish: the energy-system has inertia!
As the ignored-until-last-couple-years Cold Blob ( Greenland icemelt ) puts a skim of cold freshwater over top of the ocean, & it can freeze much quicker ( no salt! ), but … it’s monkeying things, from killing saltwater-plankton which gets in it ( osmotically bursting them ) … & the ignored-until last-few-years warm-air reaching deep into the East Antarctic…
NOTHING can falsify the consensus??
If it’s mere ideology/belief, & it just keeps “moving the goalposts”, without any actual objective-tests for falsifiability … then it isn’t science.
We haven’t even leveled-out, on that warming-speed graph: all the “hope” for a liveable future is looking to be sewered, intently, by our current “management” paradigm.
Certainly the tropics are going to be lethal by century-end, the way we’re working…
+4C renders much of California, much of Texas, much of Saudi Arabia, much of the Sahara, & much of India completely uninhabitable ( which may be why China’s pushing coal, still, tbh: cheaper than military-fighting )
That paper I linked-to is evidence-based, NOT model-based, Science.
I don’t think they’re counting the methane, & that’s a bug, in my view ( you need to measure & calculate ALL the greenhouse-gasses, for your model to be accurate! )
but once one includes the methane-converted-to-CO2-equivalent, & sees the resultant planet-equilibrium-temperature … +2C is lalaland level of delusional.
& once one includes the system-inertia & the bell-curve, knowing that our speed-of-warming may diminish in the future, but it’ll still be actual speed-of-warming while that speed is diminishing, & we’ll be leaving-behind inhabitable-tropics yet more…
Find models that actually are accurate, & have the spine to hold-to them: they exist, but as yt’s Sabine Hossenfelder pointed-out, in some past year, the “consensus” eradicated all more-extreme models, & … the evidence isn’t matching the consensus, so therefore we, ourselves, have suppressed the models which would be accurate.
Idiocy.
What SCIENCE would do, is immediately do a “directed shotgun” approach to discovering models which are accurate & begin trusting/relying-on them instead of the retarded lobby-group “consensus” which keeps misleading us about what’s happening.
Who’s got the spine to do that, though, in this world?
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