Ahead of what is predicted to be a bruising set of local and devolved parliamentary elections in May, we’re already getting a taste of the economic consequences of Starmer’s inability to keep Britain out of Trump and Netanyahu’s latest Middle East misadventure.

Of all the G20 nations, Britain’s economy will be worst hit by the war on Iran. That’s according to analysis by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released yesterday. The OECD’s assessment also has the UK economy growing by just 0.7% this year, downgraded from the 1.2% it predicted in December, before the war began. By contrast, Italy, France and Germany’s growth will only shrink by 0.2% as a result of the war.

Meanwhile – get this – the US actually had its growth forecast upgraded by the OECD due to an increased demand for US oil, all thanks to its illegal war. Now that’s what I call the art of the deal.

How have we ended up with the worst of all worlds? Well, the UK is heavily overreliant on overseas fuel imports and international trade, and fears of higher inflation mean consumer confidence has collapsed – a fancy way of saying that when things feel uncertain, people are less likely to spend.

While not inviting speculation on my age, I have literally zero adult memories of there not being some sort of economic meltdown occurring in Britain that the many, not the few, end up paying for. The cost of living crisis – which began in 2021 – seems to have morphed into a perma-crisis, stubbornly refusing to budge due to global instability (ie a handful of men starting wars that affect hundreds of millions of people) and successive UK governments failing to reverse the harms of coalition-era austerity.

The US-Israeli war with Iran – now nearly four weeks old – has seen soaring wholesale oil and gas prices, with oil still hovering at over $100 (£75) a barrel. For mere mortals like you and me, this means higher petrol and diesel prices, more expensive flights and rising mortgage rates. Major lenders have axed hundreds of deals.

Predictably, chancellor Rachel Reeves responded to the OECD report with an “It wasn’t me, guv.” “The war in the Middle East is not one that we started,” she said, “nor is it a war we have joined.” But the markets don’t care who started it – Britain’s economy will be hit regardless. What’s more, the UK is undeniably involved, with Starmer expanding British complicity last week to include letting the US use British bases to launch strikes on Iran, including the strait of Hormuz.

Reeves won’t be offering much help with energy bills, either, only potential targeted support for the poorest households “within our iron-clad fiscal rules”. Small comfort for everyone who isn’t a millionaire. A Green party source told me that the impact is coming, and Labour has its head in the sand.

Some people are doing well out of the current situation, though. One is Jeremy Hosking, a major Reform donor and boss of hedge fund Hosking Partners. The value of Hosking Partners’ energy and fossil fuel investments has risen by more than $25m (£19m) since the war began, according to analysis by Democracy for Sale.

Reform’s big beasts – leader Nigel Farage, deputy Richard Tice and Lincolnshire mayor Andrea Jenkyns – went hard on support for the US-Israeli war early doors. Farage has since rowed back, perhaps realising that the conflict and UK involvement in it are deeply unpopular with the British public. His party also U-turned this week on its pledge to nationalise water and energy companies, a proposal that polls consistently well, in a mask-off moment that highlights the interests Reform truly serves.

Despite the 6-point polling hit Reform has taken from a September high of 29% (likely from its recent warmongering and welcoming of high-profile Tory defectors), it’s still set to win big on 7 May. The FT predicts net council seat gains of over 2,200 for the turquoise team.

Starmer’s handling of the war in Iran, and the yellow-bellied balancing act he’s attempting to pull off, will be a factor, but the upcoming elections will mostly be a verdict on how badly Labour has wasted its parliamentary majority. Has the government tackled the cost of living crisis or made people feel the much-vaunted “change” the party promised after 14 years of Tory rule?

Voters are fed up with pointless bloody wars and a financial doom loop writ large across Britain’s high streets and public services. The two-party system is over – our vassal status with the US should be, too.

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