As the Iranian government denied President Donald Trump’s claim on Monday that “productive” talks are taking place between the US and the Middle Eastern country, which the White House has joined Israel in attacking for close to a month, a top Iranian lawmaker accused the president of attempting to manipulate global markets with his claim.
“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, in a post on X.
Ghalibaf’s theory appeared to be supported by developments in the financial markets shortly after Trump’s seemingly significant announcement Monday morning.
As the market analysis and commentary website The Kobeissi Letter reported, by 7:10 am Eastern—six minutes after Trump appeared to allude to diplomatic strides toward ending his unprovoked war—the S&P 500 surged by more than 240 points, adding more than $2 trillion in market capitalization.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Trump’s claim 27 minutes later, and by 8:00 AM Eastern the S&P 500 had fallen by 120 points, erasing nearly $1 trillion in market value.
“That’s a $3 TRILLION swing market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500,” said The Kobeissi Letter. “What is happening here?”
Ahead of Ghalibaf’s remarks, The New Republic also posited that Trump’s “news” of productive discussions was “just a ploy at market manipulation.”
The quick denial of talks from the Foreign Ministry raised “serious doubts as to whether the president is telling the truth or just saying whatever he can to stop gas prices from rising more and more as Iran locks down the Strait of Hormuz.”
Since the US and Israel began its assault on Iran on February 28, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows, and sent gas prices soaring to nearly $4 per gallon, up from $2.91 before the war.
The war, which has killed more than 3,200 Iranians and exploded into a larger conflict, with more than 1,000 people killed in Lebanon and at least 60 killed in Iraq, has appeared politically toxic for Trump, who campaigned on “no new wars” and making life more affordable for Americans.
Nearly 80% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 said last week that they hope for a quick end to the war.
Some observers noted that even the president’s five-day deadline for negotiations to conclude—after which he suggested the US could launch strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure—appeared to revolve around the week’s closing of energy markets on Friday.
“Every week, when markets open, Trump makes these kinds of statements to drive down oil prices,” said Iranian academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi. “Even his five-day deadline aligns with the closure of the energy market. But in reality, there are no negotiations underway, nor does Trump have the capability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s firm threat has once again forced Trump to back down.”
On Saturday, Trump had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday. Iran responded with a threat to target energy infrastructure across the region, including in Israel.
A senior Iranian official told Drop Site News that "no new developments have occurred” diplomatically between the US and Iran.
Iran’s conditions for ending the war, the official said, include a simultaneous ceasefire in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. The government is also demanding an end to US sanctions on Iran’s procurement of defensive weapons and equipment.
“The fact that he publicly responds to [Iran’s position] by posting a tweet," the official said, “is solely intended to manage the financial markets—nothing more.”
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